Geopolitical situation causes fluctuations in the Crypto Assets market to fluctuate and consolidate.

Geopolitical tensions trigger market fluctuations, Crypto Assets display a volatile consolidation trend

The macro environment is becoming increasingly turbulent, and market sentiment is tending towards caution:

The tense situation in the Middle East has triggered short-term risk aversion, leading to a decrease in market Fluctuation. At the same time, expectations for a Fed rate cut have warmed, and investors' attitudes lean towards wait-and-see.

The momentum of capital inflow has slowed down:

Crypto Assets ETF net inflows reached $1.02 billion, but the growth rate has slowed down. The issuance growth rate of stablecoins has also declined, and overall funding shows a cautious attitude.

Mainstream coins show divergence, Bitcoin's rising momentum slows down, Ethereum pulls back:

After Bitcoin surged, it encountered resistance and fell back, while Ethereum's momentum weakened after a rebound. Institutional investors continue to increase their holdings, and the market structure remains neutral to strong.

Liquidity of small-cap coins improves but is hindered in upward movement:

The TOTAL2 index rebounded but faced resistance and retracement, while the market capitalization share of OTHERS stopped falling and fluctuated. The on-chain activity indicator is at 53, still in a weak range.

The market is currently in the final stage of consolidation. In the short term, attention should be paid to signs of capital breakthroughs, while patiently waiting for small-cap coin structures to strengthen and signals of capital returning to mainstream coins.

1. Macroeconomic and Market Environment

• The Federal Reserve's stance is neutral, maintaining expectations for two rate cuts within the year, but due to tariffs, upward adjustments in inflation expectations, and downward revisions in economic outlook, the path for rate cuts is becoming more conservative.
• In the third quarter, influenced by oil prices, tariffs, and base period effects, it is difficult for the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate cut in the short term. It is expected that after mid-August, the impact of tariffs and the trend of oil prices will become clearer, and September may become the first rate cut point, with core inflation possibly rising to 3.0% by the end of the year.

2. Capital Flow Analysis and Mainstream Coin Market Structure

External Capital Flow

• ETF Funds: This week, $2.8 billion flowed in, with a significant increase in net inflow.

• Stablecoin: This week, an additional issuance of $2.3 billion, with an average daily issuance of $321 million, is at a relatively high level.

Market Sentiment Indicator

• Off-Exchange Premium: The premium rate of stablecoins continues to rise slightly.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Technical Analysis: The market is in a volatile upward range.

• On-chain chip distribution: The chip density in the area above $103,000 has increased.

Ethereum (ETH)

• Performance is weaker than BTC, the ETH/BTC ratio remains volatile, with funds continuously flowing to BTC.

• On-chain data: The increase in active address count may indicate that the phase of bottoming out is complete.