The improvement of the macro environment drives a rebound in the crypto assets market, with mainstream tokens experiencing strong fluctuations while alts are gaining momentum.

Recently, the easing of geopolitical risks and rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have led to a significant influx of funds into the crypto assets market. Prices of mainstream tokens have risen to high levels, and altcoins have stabilized after a decline, resulting in a noticeable improvement in the overall market atmosphere.

The reduction of macro risks has significantly boosted market sentiment. As the situation in the Middle East stabilizes and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve rise, the Nasdaq index has reached new highs.

The inflow momentum of funds has significantly strengthened and is expected to continue. Data shows that cryptocurrency ETFs had a net inflow of $1.7 billion this week, the issuance of stablecoins is accelerating, and the premium rate of USDT is showing an upward trend.

Mainstream tokens performed relatively strong, with Bitcoin fluctuating at high levels and Ethereum catching up. Meanwhile, crypto assets-related concept stocks showed active overall performance.

The liquidity of alts has marginally improved, but the upward movement is hindered. The TOTAL2 index's rebound is blocked, and the market capitalization ratio of OTHERS has stopped falling and is fluctuating. The on-chain boom-bust index is at 53, remaining in a weak channel.

The market is currently at the end of consolidation, and in the short term, we need to wait for a breakthrough in capital. Investors should patiently observe whether the structure of alts strengthens and the signs of capital inflow into mainstream tokens.

1. Macroeconomic and Market Environment

In the second half of 2025, the U.S. economy is expected to shift from moderate growth to a slowdown. Weak retail sales and employment data indicate a weakening in consumer and investment momentum.

Inflation has risen slightly due to tariffs and oil prices, but it remains within the controllable range of the Federal Reserve.

The uncertainty of tariff policies has decreased, with targeted increases and exemption measures coexisting.

2. Fund Flow Analysis and Mainstream Token Market Structure

External Capital Flow:

• ETF funds saw a net inflow of 1.7 billion USD this week, with a significant increase in inflow.
• The issuance of stablecoins increased by 1.8 billion this week, with an average daily issuance of 263 million, which is at a high level.

Market Sentiment Indicator:

• The premium of stablecoins continues to rise slightly.

Bitcoin ( BTC ):

• Technical Analysis: Strong fluctuations around $106,000
• On-chain chip distribution: little change from last week, with 103,000 USD as a strong short-term support.

Ethereum(ETH):

• Compared to Bitcoin's trend: ETH/BTC remains volatile, with funds first flowing back into Bitcoin.
• On-chain activity: The number of active addresses is rising, and market sentiment is warming up.

Macro Economic Review

Economy: Moderate growth accompanied by weakening risks

The U.S. economy currently shows resilience but has potential signs of fatigue. Employment data indicates that non-farm payrolls have increased by 100,000 to 150,000 over the last two months, better than expected, with the unemployment rate stable at a low of 4.2%, suggesting an overall robust labor market. However, previous non-farm figures have been revised downwards, and the number of initial and continued unemployment claims has exceeded the upper limit of the range, with Challenger layoffs remaining at a near-high level, indicating concerns about a weakening job market. Consumer data also reflects a polarized trend: service consumption maintains momentum, with real personal consumption expenditures increasing by 0.3% month-on-month; however, goods consumption is weak, with May retail sales turning negative at -0.9% month-on-month, mainly due to a slowdown in momentum for bulk commodities like automobiles and construction gardening after a pre-tariff buying spree. Overall, the U.S. economy is expected to slow down in the second half of the year, with increasing risks of growth deceleration.

Tariffs: Uncertainty diminishes, policies become more targeted.

The uncertainty of tariff policies is gradually decreasing. After the expiration of the reciprocal tariff exemption on July 9, the government released more details, indicating a policy inclination towards conditional increases rather than comprehensive pressure. The reciprocal tariff exemption is highly likely to be extended to avoid direct imposition of high rates; industry tariffs will not be imposed comprehensively, for example, products without steel and aluminum components can be exempted from 50% of high tariffs, only subject to a 10% reciprocal tariff, and the USMCA duty-free channel will be retained. Semiconductor tariffs may adopt a similar model, balancing increases with exemptions. Overall, the impact of tariffs is becoming more controllable, with limited shocks to the economy and inflation.

Neutral Interest Rate

Currently, the market predicts a 25 basis point rate cut on September 17, 2025, with a total of three rate cuts throughout 2025, bringing the rate down to 3.75%, and the neutral rate down to 3.25%. Whether to initiate a rate cut in July is currently a focal point of the game between the Federal Reserve and the government. The deadline for tariff policy has been extended by another 90 days to July 9, which has become a long-term game. The impact of tariffs on the economy is beginning to slowly emerge. At the same time, the Federal Reserve continues to advance quantitative tightening, reducing its holdings of US Treasury bonds over the past month to tighten liquidity, leading to a bullish fluctuation in Bitcoin during this period.

Key events to focus on next week include the release of the US Non-Farm Payroll report and manufacturing PMI and other economic data.

On-chain Data Analysis

1. The short to medium-term data changes that affect the market this week.

1.1 Stablecoin Fund Flow Situation

This week, the issuance of stablecoins increased from 836 million last week to 1.839 billion, a month-on-month growth of 119%. The average daily issuance rose from 119 million to 263 million, indicating a significant acceleration in the issuance speed. The bar chart shows that the stablecoin issuance has shown a continuous acceleration trend this week, which aligns with the price movement of Bitcoin. After hitting a low at the beginning of the week, Bitcoin has continued to rebound and is currently back in the previous high point area. Whether it can continue to break through depends on whether the stablecoin issuance can maintain an accelerated trend next week.

1.2 ETF Capital Flow Situation

This week, the Bitcoin ETF overall still shows a net inflow of 1.721 billion USD, an increase of 380 million USD compared to last week. Despite the Bitcoin price hitting a recent low over the weekend, the ETF inflow remained strong after the market opened on Monday, reflecting institutional and U.S. investors' long-term optimism toward Bitcoin. Overall, although the Bitcoin price briefly broke below a certain level over the weekend, it is currently still in a high-level consolidation. However, the ETF inflow has shown a continuous growth trend in recent weeks. If this trend can continue, it will further support Bitcoin's price and market sentiment, helping it to break through.

1.3 Off-exchange Premium and Discount

This week, the off-exchange premium rate of ( USDT and USDC has been similar to last week, both rapidly rising to around 100% at the beginning of the week before slightly retreating, reflecting a peak in off-exchange capital inflow at the start of the week. This trend may be related to the recent fluctuations or downward trends in the broader market. Whenever the broader market touches the lower boundary of fluctuations or slightly breaks it, off-exchange capital begins to flow back in to buy at the bottom, pushing up the off-exchange premium rates of USDT and USDC. Overall, the premium rate trend has shifted from a slight decline earlier to horizontal fluctuations, but has not yet shown the slight premium that should occur during a bull market phase, and overall market sentiment remains conservative.

![Market Observation Weekly Report 【6.21 - 6.28】: Macroeconomic easing boosts the coin market rebound, Mainstream Token strong fluctuations while alts are building momentum])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-dd0b23bd690f84f9531cc571a803c819.webp(

1.4 Bitcoin exchange balance

Based on data from the past year, the balance of Bitcoin exchanges is generally inversely related to its price. This week, the exchange balance continues to decline smoothly, which is favorable for maintaining the bullish trend of Bitcoin.

![Market Observation Weekly Report 【6.21 - 6.28】: Macroeconomic easing promotes the coin market rebound, mainstream tokens strongly fluctuate while alts are poised to take off])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-ed6ec8bd90a65f0a1fe85fb3df77556d.webp(

1.5 Holdings of short-term and long-term holders

This week has seen some changes, with long-term holders' holdings starting to slightly decline after reaching 14.705 million coins on June 22, while short-term holders' holdings began to rise after reaching 2.249 million coins on the same day. It can be seen that this week's Bitcoin rebound is mainly driven by short-term holders, and there is a need to be cautious about the risk of a correction after the rebound ends. The long-term trend of Bitcoin still relies on the continuous increase in holdings by long-term holders, and attention should be paid to when the turning point for their holdings' decline appears.

![Market Observation Weekly Report 【6.21 - 6.28】: Macroeconomic easing boosts coin market rebound, mainstream tokens fluctuate strongly while alts prepare for action])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-96f134fa29e1b958a515112aecd3af11.webp(

2. Changes in mid-term data affecting the market this week

2.1 Coin Holding Address Holding Ratio and URPD

From the perspective of the holding address proportion, this week the proportion of addresses holding 100-1000 coins continues to rise and reach a new high, while the proportion of addresses holding 10000-100000 coins has slightly retreated, and the proportion of addresses holding 1000-10000 coins has shown slight sideways fluctuations. Overall, addresses holding 100-1000 coins are still absorbing the selling pressure from larger addresses.

![Market Observation Weekly Report [6.21 - 6.28]: Macroeconomic Easing Boosts Coin Market Rebound, Mainstream Tokens Strongly Fluctuate While Alts Await Launch])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-6cdcc2e1d98784da090c3f76cc94580c.webp(

In terms of URPD, there was little change in the concentrated area of Bitcoin chips this week, with support zones still at $93,000-$98,000 and $100,500-$105,000.

![Market Observation Weekly Report【6.21 - 6.28】: Macroeconomic easing boosts the coin market rebound, mainstream tokens strongly fluctuate while alts are poised for action])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-3c08c298ea643dc97a3665d969698383.webp(