Trump and Musk's public dispute triggers market turbulence

Trump and Musk's disagreements on economic policies have sparked a public dispute, leading to severe market fluctuations. This debate mainly revolves around the "Beautiful America" bill and tariff policies, reflecting the fundamental contradictions in their economic priorities. Although Musk's tone has softened recently, the market has already suffered a heavy blow: the stock price of a certain auto manufacturer plummeted by 14.26% to $284.7, with a single-day market value evaporating by $153 billion. It is estimated that this turmoil has caused Musk's personal wealth to shrink by $27 billion to $388 billion. At the same time, the stock price of media technology groups related to Trump fell by 8%, and the market value of the Meme coin they hold evaporated by about $1 billion.

The number of initial jobless claims reported on Thursday unexpectedly soared to an eight-month high, leading to a drop in U.S. Treasury yields to their lowest level in nearly a month. The market promptly shifted its expectations for the first rate cut from October to September. Although the Federal Reserve is highly likely to maintain interest rates this month, the upcoming non-farm payroll report could completely change the trajectory of interest rates. Under the dual pressures of high inflation and economic slowdown, a policy shift requires more data support. The interest rate swap market shows that the probability of a rate cut in September has surged to 90%, with the 50 basis points cut for the year fully priced in.

The political changes in South Korea may bring new opportunities to the cryptocurrency market. After a landslide victory, Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung vowed to position virtual assets as key to national financial reform, promoting token securities legislation, the legalization of virtual asset spot ETFs, and the construction of a Korean won-pegged stablecoin system, even guiding the allocation of the $884 billion National Pension Fund towards crypto assets. However, some analysts have expressed concerns about the South Korean market, pointing out that the trust crisis caused by previous cryptocurrency crashes and stringent compliance requirements will test the new government's ability to balance regulation and market vitality.

Bitcoin fell to around $100,000 this morning, nearing the support level of the 50-day moving average at $100,295. Analysts point out that if Friday's U.S. employment report shows a slowdown in labor market growth, Bitcoin could rise to the $120,000 to $125,000 range; conversely, if the data is strong, the price may retreat to around $95,000. Some investors still hold expectations for the third quarter, as evidenced by the trading of call options expiring in September with a strike price of $130,000. Some investors still maintain the prediction that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 this year, believing that trade agreements, the upcoming regulatory framework, and the development of Web3 applications will drive Bitcoin prices higher.

Ethereum fell below $2400 this morning, and some traders indicated that they have gone long on ETH at the current price, setting stop-loss orders below this morning's low of $2380. However, some research institutions remain bullish on Ethereum, reportedly having purchased a large number of call options on ETH with strike prices of $3200 and $3400.

In the cryptocurrency market, the dispute between Trump and Musk has also spawned some new Meme coins. The major related Meme coins, DOGE and TRUMP, both fell by 10%. Some large holders also became victims of this dispute, with traders being forcibly liquidated of 379 Bitcoins in the early morning, subsequently actively clearing their remaining positions, resulting in a total loss of $2.9 million from this long Bitcoin trade.

In addition, a stablecoin issuer successfully entered the U.S. market, with its stock price soaring nearly 170% on the first day of its IPO, briefly reaching $103.75, far exceeding the issue price of $31. This success will encourage more crypto companies to advance their listing plans.

Key Data (As of June 6, 13:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $102,942 (Year-to-date +10.1%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $42.877 billion
• Ethereum: $2,458.58 (Year-to-date -26.29%), daily spot trading volume is $27.835 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 46 (Fear)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1.49 sat/vB ETH: 3.25 Gwei
• Market Share: BTC 63.7%, ETH 9.2%
• 24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 0.9623
• Sector Gains and Losses: The altcoin market has declined for three consecutive days, with L2 down 5.89%; Meme down 5.67%.
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 225,036 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $980 million, including $341 million in BTC, $285 million in ETH, and $27.1169 million in DOGE.
• BTC Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper Channel Line (105735.13 USD), Lower Channel Line (103641.36 USD)
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (2569.60 USD), lower channel line (2518.72 USD)

ETF Flows (as of June 5)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$278 million
• Ethereum ETF: +11.2587 million (14 consecutive days of net inflow)

Today's Outlook

• A trading platform will launch fly.trade (FLY)
• A trading platform will delist 5 spot trading pairs including ACX/FDUSD and IDEX/FDUSD on June 6.
• Avalanche launches the Codebase Incubator Season 4, with applications closing on June 6.
• Spectral (SPEC) will unlock approximately 3.62 million tokens on June 6 at 8 AM, which is 17.57% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately 3.7 million USD.
• Neon (NEON) will unlock approximately 53.91 million tokens on June 7 at 8 AM, accounting for 22.51% of the current circulating supply, valued at around $6.1 million.
• US May unemployment rate (June 6, 20:30): Actual to be announced / Previous value 4.20% / Expected 4.20%
• US May seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls ( people ) (June 6, 20:30): Actual to be announced / Previous value 17.7 / Expected 13

Top 500 market cap gainers today: Ravencoin (RVN) up 36.77%, Central African Republic Meme (CAR) up 19.06%, Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) up 18.08%, Lagrange (LA) up 11.56%, Ultima (ULTIMA) up 9.36%.

Hot News

• Abraxas Capital has a floating profit of over 55 million USD in multi-currency short selling.
• Yuga Labs proposed to dissolve the ApeCoin DAO, intending for a new entity, ApeCo, to take over the ecosystem.
• US stocks closed: all three major indices fell, a certain automobile manufacturer dropped 14.26%.
• A certain stablecoin company rose 167.35% on its first day of trading, with a closing price of 82.88 USD.
• The market capitalization of Bitcoin held by listed companies is close to $85 billion, more than doubling in a year.
• Origin Protocol: 100% of the protocol revenue will be directly allocated to OGN stakers.
• The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending May 31 was 247,000, higher than expected.
• Beijing police pioneered a mechanism for the disposal of tokens involved in cases: selling them through compliant exchanges in Hong Kong and remitting to the national treasury.
• Skate announced its tokenomics: the total initial issuance is 1 billion tokens, with an initial airdrop accounting for 10%.
• A report: The RWA market size is expected to surge by over 260% in the first half of 2025, with regulatory clarity driving industry growth.
• The Russian central bank plans to allow companies to purchase foreign stablecoins.
• A certain platform: $3.8 billion in BTC options and ETH options are about to expire, with call options dominating.
• A certain trading platform has included BIFI, FIS, KMD, and MDT in the "monitoring label" list.