Analysis: The US will announce the PCE index tonight, and the Federal Reserve's window for interest rate cuts may be closing.

BlockBeats News, on May 30, the United States will release the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge tonight - the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE). The market expects the PCE price index to increase by just 0.1% month-on-month in April, and the year-on-year growth rate will slow from 2.3% to 2.2%, approaching pre-pandemic levels. At its core, core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to come in at 0.1% sequentially, but will remain elevated at 2.6% year-on-year. At the moment, PCE is important because the Fed is more inclined to use it to measure the underlying trend of inflation. The analysis points out that the inflationary effect of the Trump administration's tariffs has just begun to trickle into the U.S. economy. Most economists predict that even if Trump eases some tariffs, inflation could rebound to 3% in a few months' time. With US core PCE stuck in the 2.8%-2.6% range for six months in a row, the Fed's rate cut window is closing. While some Fed officials remain positive about rate cuts, the interest rate futures market shows that traders' forecasts for the probability of a rate cut in September have plummeted to 47% from 68% a week ago. They also expect that the U.S. economy is at a crossroads in a new inflationary cycle. (Golden Ten)