The US-China tariff truce extended for 90 days! Trump's policies may drive Bitcoin to impact $150,000?

In August, the United States and China announced a 90-day extension of the tariff ceasefire period, avoiding the imposition of punitive tariffs of up to three digits on each other's goods. This move has provided some breathing room for the global Supply Chain ahead of the busy holiday shopping season, but it has also refocused the market on the long-term game between the Trump administration and China.

In this tug-of-war of politics and economics, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has reached the threshold of $118,000, and the market is starting to discuss: If tensions rise again, does BTC have a chance to hit $150,000 by mid-2026?

Background of the Latest US-China Tariff Truce

Extension of 90 days: Trump signed an executive order to extend the ceasefire period originally set to expire on August 12 to November 10, during which both the US and China will suspend additional tariffs of up to 145% (US to China) and 125% (China to US), instead temporarily maintaining a tax rate of 30% and 10%.

Market reaction: Asian stock markets generally rose, major currency exchange rates stabilized, indicating that investors are optimistic about the "temporary easing."

Negotiation Progress: Both parties have engaged in multiple contacts since the Geneva talks in May, reaching a consensus on extension during the Stockholm meeting at the end of July. Trump simultaneously requested China to increase soybean purchases, while the Chinese side hopes that the U.S. will ease restrictions on high-tech product exports.

Potential Risks: Although short-term tensions have eased, Trump still threatens to reinstate or even escalate tariffs if negotiations break down; China continues to advance its digital yuan and diversify its export market layout.

The Relationship Between Geopolitics and the Crypto Market

Hedging Property: Historically, tensions in US-China trade often drive funds into decentralized assets like Bitcoin as a tool to hedge against fiat currency risks.

Potential Impact: If the ceasefire breaks down and sanctions escalate, BTC may benefit from safe-haven demand; however, if regulations tighten simultaneously, it may also trigger sell-offs in the short term.

Challenges of Chinese Digital Currency: The promotion of the digital yuan may limit the circulation and adoption of BTC in China, with a more significant impact on altcoins.

Current Market Data and Technical Analysis

BTC Technical Analysis: The price is approaching the resistance level of $120,000, and if it breaks through, it is expected to challenge $130,000; the support level to watch is $110,000.

ETH Technical Analysis: After the PoS upgrade, the trend is stable, RSI is close to 68, and there may be a possibility of a pullback before another upward movement in the short term.

Trading Volume: The 24-hour trading volume reached $1.67 trillion, indicating increased market volatility but sufficient liquidity.

Expert Opinion

John Smith (Macro Advisory Company): Geopolitical risks may short-term suppress high-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Jane Doe (Crypto Research Group): In the long term, the hedging properties of cryptocurrencies may drive adoption during periods of instability.

Michael Lee (Bloomberg): If tensions between China and the U.S. escalate, institutional capital inflow into BTC may increase by 20–30%.

Possible Scenario Simulation

Bullish Scenario (40%)

If the situation worsens and funds flow into safe havens, BTC is expected to break through $150,000, and ETH may reach $6,000.

Bearish Scenario (30%)

If the United States strengthens regulation and restricts exchanges, BTC could fall back to $90,000, and altcoins will drop even more.

Consolidation Scenario (30%)

The price fluctuates between $110,000 and $130,000, waiting for clarity in policy and market sentiment.

Investor Focus

Technical Indicators: BTC hash rate hits a new high, ETH PoS scalability improved after.

Policy risk: Advancement of digital RMB, potential tightening of regulations in the United States.

Operation Strategy:

· Core position allocation in BTC and ETH to diversify risk.

· Retain 10–15% cash liquidity to respond to sudden pullbacks.

· Set alerts: BTC support at $110,000, resistance at $130,000.

Long-term Impact and Conclusion

The temporary ceasefire in tariffs between China and the US has brought short-term relief to the market, but it has not eliminated structural contradictions. The results of negotiations in the coming months will directly affect global capital flows and trends in the cryptocurrency market.

If the situation worsens, Bitcoin is expected to benefit from a surge in safe-haven demand, hitting a historical high; on the contrary, if a long-term agreement is reached, the market may shift towards fundamentals and technological innovation.

Gate will continue to track the progress of China-U.S. negotiations and interactions with the cryptocurrency market, providing investors with real-time market data and strategy analysis.