$5 billion BTC, ETH Options expire today! The biggest pain points are $116,000 and $3,675, as the low fluctuation market faces a critical test.

The Crypto Assets derivation market is facing a key event - nearly $5 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options contracts will expire today (UTC time 8:00). Among them, BTC options account for over $4 billion (notional value), with the maximum pain point at $116,000; ETH options are about $876 million, with the maximum pain point at $3,675. The put/call ratio (PCR) indicates that the BTC market is slightly bearish (PCR=1.46), while ETH remains more neutral (PCR=1.14). In a persistently low fluctuation environment, whether this large-scale expiration will trigger drastic market fluctuations has become a focal point for traders.

Nearly 5 billion dollars in options expire, the biggest pain point reveals key price levels

According to Deribit data, today there will be a total of 4.96 billion USD worth of BTC and ETH options contracts expiring, which is one of the largest options expiration events in the crypto market recently.

(Source: Deribit)

• Bitcoin (BTC): Notional value $4.09 billion options are about to expire, involving 34,954 open contracts. The key indicator "maximum pain point" (the price at which the most options expire worthless, minimizing losses for market makers) is at $116,000. The current put/call ratio (PCR) is 1.46, indicating that the open interest for put options is higher than that for call options, suggesting an overall sentiment that is slightly bearish.

  (Source: Deribit)

• Ethereum (ETH): notional value $876 million options expiration, involving 223,433 open contracts. The maximum pain point is at $3,675, with a PCR of 1.14, indicating a more neutral market sentiment compared to BTC.

Position Distribution and Low Volatility Predicament

Deribit analysts point out that the current distribution of open contracts shows significant characteristics: put options (Puts) are heavily concentrated below the spot price, while call options (Calls) are piled up above the spot price. This distribution structure may act like "gravity", binding prices within the current range — but all of this will be revealed after today's expiration.

Low volatility dominates, traders bet on stability or moderate rise

Options analysis agency Greeks.live observed a divergence in market sentiment, with many traders struggling to adapt to the persistent low volatility environment. A key phenomenon is that despite the weekly expiry implied volatility (IV) of BTC reaching 32%, traders are still actively selling put options with a strike price of $112,000. This indicates that most traders are betting on price stability or moderate rises, utilizing a sell options strategy (especially selling put options) to "harvest premiums" (Premium Harvesting), which is a common strategy in low volatility environments.

"Traders show strong confidence in the premium selling strategy," said a Greeks.live analyst, "Successful trades of this kind can profit when the underlying asset price moves favorably."

Key Technical Levels and Potential Trend Reversal Catalysts

Analysts also emphasize that the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA100) on the BTC 5-minute chart is a key technical battleground recently, serving as resistance or support in multiple time frames. The current Bitcoin price has fallen below this moving average, which typically indicates short-term bearish momentum.

• Options Expiration or Inducing Fluctuation: Due to the large number of open contracts around the $112,000 strike price, put sellers may take defensive actions to try to push the price up to avoid losses. This could intensify market fluctuations amid today's massive options expiration.
• Opportunities in the Post-Expiration Era: The more core question is: Will such a large-scale expiration ignite Fluctuation? As a massive number of contracts exit, there is always the risk of sudden position adjustments, especially when the price of BTC or ETH breaks critical technical thresholds. However, given that most traders are currently playing the role of “Volatility Sellers,” the market consensus still leans towards the belief that volatility will remain subdued. Nevertheless, once these positions are unwound, the post-expiration market environment may open the door to new directional opportunities, especially if there are macro catalysts (such as Federal Reserve policies, economic data) or changes in liquidity patterns.

Conclusion: The concentration of $5 billion worth of BTC and ETH options expiring is like a "time bomb" in a market characterized by persistently low fluctuations. Although the prevalence of premium selling strategies suggests that most traders are betting on stability, the breach of key technical levels (such as $112,000) and the demand for the liquidation of a large number of open contracts may still become the catalyst to break the market deadlock. The maximum pain points for options (BTC $116K, ETH $3,675) will serve as psychological anchors for the bulls and bears. Investors need to be wary of the potential amplification of volatility during the expiration window (around UTC 8:00) and closely monitor the market liquidity reconstruction and the choice of new directions after expiration. In a low-volatility market, black swan events often occur unexpectedly.