Why did Ki Young Ju say "The Bitcoin Cycle Theory is Dead"?

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant and a prominent figure in the cryptocurrency analysis field, has publicly stated that the traditional Bitcoin cycle theory is no longer valid. This bold statement is also his acknowledgment that his previous predictions are now outdated. It reflects a profound shift in the nature of the market compared to before. Why Did Traditional Cycle Theory Collapse? The previous Bitcoin cycle theory by Ki Young Ju was built on two pillars: buying when whales accumulate and selling when retail investors participate. He used these two factors as the basis for his previous predictions — including the earlier statement in March that the bullish cycle had ended. However, when the market fluctuates, he admits that this theory is no longer applicable. He even apologized, expressing concern that his predictions might affect someone's investment decisions.

The main difference that made him abandon this theory lies in the behavior of whales. Previously, whales distributed Bitcoin to retail investors. But now, he realizes that old whales are selling to emerging long-term whales. This change has led to an increase in the number of holders — surpassing the number of traders. The acceptance of Bitcoin by institutions has not only exceeded his expectations but also surpassed those of many analysts. This has created an unprecedented market environment in Bitcoin's history, making comparisons difficult. Recent analysis from CryptoQuant reinforces his argument. Analyst Burakkesmeci notes that on-chain data clearly indicates this is not a typical "retail investor frenzy," unlike previous cycles.

The chart shows that since the beginning of 2023, retail investors have been selling BTC and their holdings have continuously decreased. In contrast, institutions, funds, and large wallets — including ETFs — have been actively accumulating Bitcoin. "This cycle looks nothing like the madness of 2021. There is no excessive excitement, nor any explosion on social media. Quiet and smart money is currently taking the lead — and most people are still watching from the sidelines," Burakkesmeci said. However, this new market environment also makes forecasting much more difficult. In previous cycles, investors recognized bear markets through the panic of individual investors. But now, an urgent question arises: What will the bear market look like if institutional investors start to panic? That could be the biggest challenge for risk managers today.