SEC closed-door meeting focuses on Ripple case, XRP price fluctuation may intensify | Crypto market dynamic analysis

As the SEC holds another closed-door meeting, discussions regarding the Ripple case have once again sparked market attention. In particular, speculation is growing regarding whether the SEC will withdraw its appeal against the ruling on the programmatic sale of XRP.

Ripple case: Will the SEC withdraw its appeal?

It has been four weeks since Judge Analisa Torres rejected the joint request for summary judgment from Ripple and the SEC. Previously, the SEC stated that if Judge Torres lifted the ban on XRP sales to institutional investors and reduced the fine to $50 million, the SEC would vote to decide whether to withdraw the appeal.

Although the settlement terms are favorable to Ripple, SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins and other commissioners still need to vote again to decide whether to withdraw the appeal. However, the court schedule may affect the timing of the vote.

The SEC's appeal vote is crucial for the approval of the XRP spot ETF.

Investor patience is waning. The SEC's delays in the Ripple case could affect its stance on spot ETFs related to XRP. Although the SEC has approved changes to the rules for crypto funds to convert to ETFs, it has still issued a "stay order," delaying the listing of the Grayscale Digital Large Cap ETF and the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF. These delays could impact the launch of the pending XRP spot ETF.

Previously, the market's expectations for the SEC to withdraw its appeal and approve the XRP spot ETF had driven the XRP price to an all-time high of $3.6606 on July 18.

Potential reasons behind the SEC's stop order

Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart suggested two possible reasons for the pause: "I suspect the SEC wants to finalize the framework or general listing standards for crypto asset ETPs before allowing these products to convert to ETFs. Another theory is that a commissioner is slowing down the decision-making process."

The president of ETF Store, Nate Geraci, prefers the latter theory: "I tend to lean towards the latter. Although these projects have received approval from the SEC's Trading and Markets Division, the immediate suspension that followed makes no sense."

XRP Price Outlook: SEC Appeal Vote and ETF Approval as Key Factors

On July 23, the price of XRP fell by 10.41%, closing at $3.1830, giving back a 0.01% rise from July 22, performing weaker than the overall cryptocurrency market, which declined by 2.53%, with a total market capitalization dropping to $3.82 trillion.

The recent price trend of XRP will be influenced by the SEC appeal vote and developments related to the XRP spot ETF.

Breaking through $3.4 may push XRP towards the historical high of $3.6606 on July 18. If XRP continues to break through $3.6606, it may further challenge the $4 level. Conversely, if it falls below the low of $3.0523 on July 23, it may trigger a downward movement into the range below $3.

Bitcoin spot ETF faces three days of capital outflow, BTC price under pressure

While XRP plummeted due to the SEC's silence, Bitcoin (BTC) also fell due to a decline in spot ETF demand. On July 22, the US BTC spot ETF market reported a net outflow of $68 million, following an outflow of $131.4 million the previous day. Outflows intensified on July 23, further dragging down market sentiment.

According to Farside Investors, the main outflows on July 23rd included:

• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) outflowed 227.2 million USD
• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) outflowed 9.8 million USD
• Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) outflowed 1.9 million dollars
• Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) inflow of $10.5 million

The 2025 Responsible Financial Innovation Act supports BTC and XRP

On July 22, U.S. Senators introduced the 2025 Responsible Financial Innovation Act (RFIA), aimed at providing a clearer regulatory framework for the U.S. digital asset space. A strong regulatory framework that supports innovation will promote the adoption of BTC and XRP.

The bill follows the progress of the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act in the Senate, demonstrating lawmakers' support for cryptocurrency.

Senator Cynthia Lummis commented: "Today, Senator Tim Scott, Bernie Moreno, Senator Hagerty, and I led our colleagues in releasing a discussion draft of the Market Structure Bill, which will lay the groundwork for making the United States the global crypto capital."

Bitcoin Price Outlook: Legislation and Spot ETF Fund Flows Become Key

On July 23, the price of Bitcoin fell by 0.99%, giving back a rise of 2.2% on July 22, closing at $118,795.

The recent price trend of Bitcoin will be influenced by several key factors, including legislative progress from Capitol Hill, relevant news regarding strategic reserve assets, and the flow of funds into spot ETFs.

Potential scenario:

• Bearish scenario: Legislative progress stalling, the U.S. government's silence on increasing Bitcoin reserves, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, and ETF outflows. The combination of these factors could push Bitcoin down to $115,000 and may touch the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

• Bullish Scenario: Bipartisan support for cryptocurrency legislation, increased support for Bitcoin holdings from the U.S. government, dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, and inflows into ETFs. In these scenarios, Bitcoin is expected to challenge its all-time high of $122,057.

  

Key factors that investors should follow:

• Ripple case update: Pending SEC appeal vote.
• U.S. President's Working Group Report: Recommendations on Cryptocurrency Reserves.
• Legislative progress: Relevant developments on Capitol Hill.
• Federal Reserve guidance: hawkish or dovish signals.
• ETF market capital flow: The flow trend is crucial for the supply and demand balance of BTC.

Conclusion:

The progress of the Ripple case, the direction of U.S. cryptocurrency legislation, and the flow of funds in the spot ETF market will directly affect the price trends of XRP and Bitcoin. Investors should closely monitor these key dynamics to seize significant market opportunities.