Legendary trader: BTC will pump to 250,000 USD by the end of this year, with a target price of 10,000 USD for ETH.

In the cryptocurrency market, legendary trader Arthur Hayes's predictions always attract widespread attention. His latest forecast indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) will rise to $250,000 by the end of 2025, while Ethereum (ETH) will reach a target price of $10,000. He also mentioned that the subtle shift of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could lead to a big pump in Bitcoin prices. Hayes's views are not only based on Technical Analysis but also delve deeper into macroeconomics, credit expansion, and the critical role that stablecoins play, painting a picture of a future where the cryptocurrency market and the global financial system are deeply integrated.

Bank of Japan Action: The Beginning of a New Phase of Global Monetary Easing

On July 19, Hayes highlighted the Bank of Japan's intervention starting from July 17, with reports of dollar-backed collateral, calling this move a "key macro development in the cryptocurrency market" and stating that it is "significant." He emphasized that this quiet yet significant liquidity injection—described by analysts as a technical adjustment—"carries far more meaning than any press release" and echoes his 2023 article "What Am I" (Shikata Ga Nai). In the article, Hayes predicted that as the financial system comes under pressure, central banks around the world would be forced to restart "fiat liquidity explosion, significantly pushing up BTC prices." He views the actions of the Bank of Japan as the beginning of a new phase of global monetary easing, which, as trust in fiat currency gradually declines, could drive capital into Bitcoin.

US Credit Growth Fuels Crypto Assets Bubble: The Cycle of Stablecoin Debt Purchases

Arthur Hayes believes that with the expansion of the scale of credit in the United States, crypto assets will usher in explosive growth. He constructed an index combining U.S. bank reserves and liabilities, mapping it to Bitcoin. When the scale of credit doubled, the price of Bitcoin increased 15 times. He pointed out that the more fiat currency created in the United States, the higher the price of crypto assets. Trump's team is also well aware of this, and thus, as Arthur said, they "pumped themselves with orange pills."

This is strategic. The impoverished population, young people, and minority Americans who own Crypto Assets outnumber those who own stocks. This means that when Crypto Assets experience a big pump, a broader group of people will feel wealthier. From a political perspective, this is simply a gold mine. Especially in conjunction with new policies that allow 401(k) plans to hold Crypto Assets (worth up to $8.7 trillion). So what about Trump's new proposal to eliminate the capital gains tax on Crypto Assets? This is simply the final boost.

However, Arthur Hayes pointed out that the real trick is not the "pump", but the "circulation". When the market capitalization of crypto assets rises, some funds flow into stablecoins. Arthur estimates that 9% of the total value of crypto assets eventually flows into stablecoins. These stablecoins invest in short-term treasury bills to earn returns; safe, short-term, and highly liquid. The more the market rises, the higher the AUC of stablecoins, and the more treasury bills are purchased.

If by 2028 the cryptocurrency market reaches a scale of 100 trillion dollars, Arthur estimates that 9 trillion dollars will flow into stablecoins, which means a demand for 9 trillion dollars in U.S. Treasury bonds. "This will grow 25 times from the current level," he said. This demand will be used to fund all of Trump's military contracts, rare earth guarantees, and production subsidies.

This is not something new. Looking back at history, the United States has done the same thing, issuing short-term notes instead of long-term bonds to fund wars. Back then it was for war bonds and patriotism. Now it is for stablecoins and returns.

So now this cycle has ended. Trump has triggered a wartime economy. The Federal Reserve is not printing money; commercial banks are. They are incentivized to lend by government guarantees. Credit is booming. Credit has pushed up the prices of crypto assets. People are flocking to buy stablecoins. Stablecoin issuers are purchasing treasury bonds. The government has gained endless liquidity to fund its military-industrial complex. So, if you are still sitting on the sidelines, sipping light beer, watching the club go crazy without you, then stop talking. This is Trump’s credit cycle. If Arthur is right, then stablecoins are the new war bonds.

Conclusion:

Arthur Hayes' predictions are not just simple judgments on the prices of Bitcoin and Ether, but rather profound insights into the global macroeconomy, credit expansion, and the key role that stablecoins play within it. He believes that against the backdrop of current global monetary easing and credit expansion, the crypto assets market will experience explosive growth, and stablecoins will become an important tool connecting the crypto world with the traditional financial system, and even funding government expenditures.