Delphi Labs conversation: The decline of OG meme coins, AI bubble, and the dominance of BTC

More than 50% of the revenue in the encryption space comes from Solana apps, and when Solana generates 80% of the industry's revenue, it's hard not to believe that it has the potential to surpass ETH. In the volatile Encryption market, it is crucial to accurately grasp trends and opportunities. As one of the most influential research institutions in the industry, Delphi Digital Podcast is known for its in-depth market analysis and accurate investment insights, and its research reports have become an important decision-making reference for institutional investors. This article originated from Delphi Labs and was compiled, compiled and contributed by PANews. (Synopsis: Solana Hackerson DeFAI wins!) Delphi Digital: Decentralized Finance will be completely upgraded this year) (Background supplement: AI Agent track four categories at a glance: framework, launchpad, application and meme) In the latest issue of the Hivemind Podcast, Delphi's core team members engaged in a Deep conversation about the outlook for the encryption market in 2025. Moderator Jose (Head of Delphi Labs) and Ceteris Parabus (Head of Institutional Research), Duncan (Investment Expert of Small Coins) and Jason (Head of Marketing of Research Department) discussed hot topics such as the evolution of AI narratives, the BTC L2 ecosystem, and the return of infrastructure value. * Note: The Podcast was recorded on January 16, which is quite different from the current market data and popular tracks. Market Watch Ceteris: The market has been very fluctuating these weeks. To recap, there was a wave of dumping in the market after the FOMC (Federal Reserve Open Market Committee) meeting at the end of December last year. At the time, the price of BTC was close to a high of $100,000, but in just a few hours it was big and dumped below $90,000. My main point is that this market fluctuation has not changed the fundamentals. For example, in the past decline, the best-performing asset was still BTC, while some decentralized finance projects and the old Meme coin (OG Memes) still did not move much. This shows that the market interest has not fundamentally shifted. The top-performing projects in Rebound, such as Virtuals and ai16z-related frameworks, are still the ones that stand out at the bottom. To sum up, I think that the fluctuation of this market has both the influence of macro factors, such as CPI data and other policy rumors, and the element of technical adjustment. The price charts of many tokens have been very "crazy" over the past few weeks, and the extreme movements of these prices will naturally trigger callbacks and liquidations. Jason: A lot of fluctuations have to do with market positioning, like last week's news that DOJ was selling $6 billion in BTC, which now seems to be false or over-interpreted. As Trump's inauguration date approaches, if they really intend to sell but never act, that's actually the Favourable Information factor. From my perspective, last week's macro view data was better than expected, which could raise near-term goals. However, I think the more you rise before a major event, the more likely it is to "sell information". Just like Trump takes office next Monday, if BTC continues to rise before that, I would worry about short-term callbacks, as was the case when ETFs were approved. But on the other hand, Trump may issue a series of executive orders as soon as he took office in 2016, some of which may target Cryptocurrency. Given the relatively small Liquidity of the encryption market, he is well positioned to influence the encryption market in the same way that traditional financial markets do, and perhaps even more. Ceteris: I see that Trump's youngest son and his circle are involved in cryptocurrency, which probably means that he will see the BTC price as a "stock market indicator" for young people. While this claim needs to be verified, it is credible considering that his children are involved. If he does start talking about becoming the first "president of encryption" or "president of BTC," there are indeed many ways he can help drive cryptocurrency forward. Jose: Trump can use a lot of leverage to help cryptocurrency, but obviously we went through a massive upswing after the election, and now the market is digesting it. I think the scale of future market movements will largely depend on Trump's actual approach to cryptocurrency and the influence of his appointees in the larger macro market, such as Scott Benson's performance as Treasury secretary. The decline before Trump's election felt like a good buying opportunity. I think there's a very simple corollary to Trump's election — he can easily benefit cryptocurrency through some policy measures. A cryptocurrency bill is currently being pushed forward in Washington, and the industry has grown from a state of uncared for and even widespread disgust to the current "Crypto Bowl" and the soon-to-be-formed encryption advisory board. So there's really no need to overthink it, I think Trump is obviously bullish on cryptocurrency. Of course, there is also the possibility that he does nothing and that it is not uncommon for politicians not to deliver on their promises, especially for Trump, who is not the most trustworthy person. But I think it's in his interest to push for cryptocurrency, so I'm quite bullish. AI Bubble Jose: Actually, I bought a lot of coins related to AI frameworks during this decline. In my opinion, I think AI itself will be the biggest narrative of 2025. My overall view is that in 2025 we may achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI). Hyperscale tech companies are spending a staggering amount on capital expenditures, with Microsoft alone planning to spend $80 billion, and others pouring almost all of their free cash flow into computing infrastructure to train AI models. Progress in 2025 is likely to be faster than in 2024. To me, AGI is defined as AI that meets or surpasses human levels in multiple domains and has some autonomy to perform tasks for users. In simple terms, it's like a research assistant or investment analyst with PhD-level intelligence. Right now, only a few people in Silicon Valley and tech really understand how AI will impact the world, but in the next few years, the world will realize it. I believe this is going to be one of the biggest bubbles in the history of finance because the fundamentals of AI are very strong and the most compelling stories can be built around it. Never before has a technology had such strong fundamentals at such an early stage, such as OpenAI's revenue and the revenue that code assistant tools could generate in the future. Despite the strong fundamentals of AI, humans are always overexcited about something new, leading to cyclical fluctuations in the market. I don't think the AI bubble is really here yet, but it's almost inevitable. Even assuming that encryption AI is completely devoid of fundamentals, I believe that the flow of money on its own is enough to move the market. Imagine how the average investor can participate in the AI narrative? Although the valuation of "MAG7" (Microsoft, Apple, Google and other seven major technology companies) is high, it is not unbearable; However, buying shares in big tech companies is not an easy comeback. In addition, stock selection in the stock market is very difficult, and many people feel that it is a "manipulated tour".