Year-end forecast: 4 market trends and 11 opportunities in 2025

The altcoin season on-chain Ether will not happen; Base fails in the competition with L1s; as VR makes new progress, the metaverse Token gets a new life; ICO is great again. This article is from an article by Kyle, compiled and translated by PANews. (Previous summary: Perspective》Next year's 'ICO 2.0' will come back, traditional companies issue coins and encryption companies merge into a new trend) (Background supplement: NFT track 2024 review: those pictures that don't want to disperse) Since this round of Bull Market cycle from the BTC ETF launch on January 10, 2024, the current cycle is: BTC continued to break through 50,000 and 60,000, and has been hovering at 90,000. It is worth noting that the altcoin season started when BTC reached its peak. The first round was when BTC approached 69,000, but failed to break through, and the next round was to approach 100,000. The next round of the altcoin season is likely to be when BTC stabilizes at 100,000, hopefully in the first quarter of 2025. However, it may replay the story of the second/third quarter of 2024 in the next few months. The following are all possible scenarios that may occur: Scenario 1: BTC + AltCoin generally rise. Rise throughout 2025, then enter another altcoin season, as BTC continues to rise, all Tokens perform well, repeating the situation of the past 2 months, everything is on the rise (30-40% probability). Strategy: Choose outstanding AltCoin and Buy the Dips. Scenario 2: BTC rises, AltCoin rises less; the story of 2024 is replayed, fluctuating up and down in the next few months, but more bullish than 2024 (because BTC rises); so choose well-performing Tokens (50-60% probability). Strategy: Buy the Dips in selected AltCoin. Avoid tracks with high followings and find the next 'get rich quick coin'. Scenario 3: BTC rises, AltCoin generally falls (20-30% probability). Strategy: Sell all AltCoin. Reduce AltCoin investment; if the held AltCoin does not rise in the long term, you may have to sell them all. Scenario 4: BTC falls, AltCoin generally falls. Everything has reached its peak (10-20% probability). Conclusion: BTC rises, with a rise exceeding that of the altcoin in 2024, even though there will be a fall, it will not be as intense as in 2024. Risk: The cycle top is far from over, but it must be re-evaluated every week. The cycle top is not necessarily an 'event', but more like a range that slowly approaches over time. BTC reserve plan risk: With the start of the new presidential term, everyone will follow Trump's words and deeds. Although there is Favourable Information for BTC, it would be quite pessimistic if Trump completely ignores the reserve plan. The more likely scenario is that the reserve plan does not happen/is delayed by something. In the latter case: as long as it is beneficial to BTC, it is initially a bearish event, but eventually a bullish one. TLDR: Bullish signals = cycle continues. Bearish signals = plans need to be modified. The cycle may continue, but the chances are lower. Supply risk: The summer of 2024 experienced a crazy macro environment, with the stock market repeatedly hitting new highs. However, due to the repeated blows of large crocodiles such as Gox, Grayscale GBTC, etc., no benefits were obtained, only downsides. Supply risk can never be mitigated. There will always be people who own a large amount of BTC — the British government, Silk Road, FTX distribution, etc. This is something you must closely follow, but if everything goes smoothly, these events will be good opportunities to Buy the Dips. Macro risk: Expect a smaller rate cut, although not so optimistic, the fact is, as long as the interest rate continues to drop, Liquidity will improve. Similarly, bullish signals = cycle continues. Unless there is a rate hike/no rate cut, the macro should be favorable for digital assets. The bearish signal is that inflation is rising again, and the Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates to drop inflation. Token recommendation: 1. AI has already experienced several waves. The next wave is expected to come soon. Buying and holding will not yield good results. Goat, the Token that gave birth to all of this, has already fallen 60% from its peak and may continue to perform poorly. Preferred: Application technology/Swarms/Games/Consumer-centric AI ALCH (game development), Griffain (agent controlling Wallet), Digimon, Ai16z, etc. are all preferred. 2. Decentralized Finance will continue to be a great narrative, however, it is very difficult to invest because few Tokens can benefit from it, and even if they do, the rise may not be significant. Frankly, in terms of risk-return, Decentralized Finance is not the preferred choice. Preferred: AAVE/ENA/Morpho/Euler/USUAL Secondary: Stable Coin/Payment-related Tokens 3. L1 L1 will come back. It is obvious hype. L1 itself is something that the market has always overlooked—it is one of the areas that no one follows, but it harbors huge opportunities (just like Hype rises 10 times). Preferred...