Polymarket's mysterious Whale won a whopping $50 million, how did they accurately predict the election outcome?

With the rise of the on-chain prediction platform Polymarket, many people have begun using these tools to predict election results. This article explores how a mysterious trader successfully bet on Trump's victory and made a profit of nearly 50 million US dollars. The article is sourced from Alexander Osipovich and curated by PANews. ('Previous summary: Polymarket's accurate prediction! Trump's election probability has been leading, presidential election betting amount exceeds 3.6 billion US dollars') (Background supplement: Trump's 5 major 'swing states all leading' have taken North Carolina! DOGE big pump 30% breaks through 0.2 US dollars) The mysterious trader, known as the 'Trump Whale', is expected to profit nearly 50 million US dollars after a series of bold bets related to the presidential election. He not only believes that Trump will win the presidential election, but also bets that Trump will win the popular vote—many political observers consider this result unlikely. The trader, self-proclaimed as 'Théo', also bets that Trump will win the 'blue wall' swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Now, Théo is about to receive a huge return. He placed bets on the on-chain prediction platform Polymarket using four anonymous accounts. Although he refused to reveal his identity, since an article on October 18th attracted attention to his bets, he has been in contact with a reporter from The Wall Street Journal. In dozens of emails, Théo stated that his bets are essentially a wager on the accuracy of poll data. He claims to be a wealthy Frenchman who has worked as a trader in several banks, and he told The Wall Street Journal that he has been using his mathematical knowledge to analyze American polls since this summer. He believes that the polls have exaggerated Vice President Harris's support. Unlike most armchair political commentators, he is resolute and has bet over 30 million US dollars on Trump's victory. On Tuesday night, as the election results continued to come in, Théo was in a very good mood. He said that he woke up in the middle of the night in France to check the election results. Trump's strong performance in Florida indicates a high hope for his victory in the popular vote. He wrote, 'I am very happy and confident about my bets!' In private messages sent to reporters before the election day, Théo predicted that Trump will get 49% or 50% of the votes nationwide, defeating Harris. He also predicted that Trump will win six out of seven battleground states. As of Wednesday afternoon, analysts predicted that Trump will win the popular vote, with nearly 72 million votes, while Harris will receive 67.1 million votes, despite millions of votes from California and other states not yet being counted. The betting market believes that Trump's victory in the popular vote is almost certain. The betting market shows that Trump is also likely to win all seven swing states. On Wednesday, Michigan, which was thought to be a state where Harris might win, was predicted to be won by Trump. The Wall Street Journal has confirmed that Théo is the trader behind the Polymarket Whale accounts, which systematically purchased bets on Trump's victory. Polymarket has confirmed part of his claims, stating that the person behind these bets is a Frenchman with rich trading experience and a background in Financial Service. Théo stated that he bet on Trump with his own money to make a lot of money, and he has 'absolutely no political purpose.' The Wall Street Journal cannot confirm whether these claims are true. The Wall Street Journal also cannot rule out Théo's contact with any political organization or Trump allies. In his emails and Zoom conversations with reporters, Théo repeatedly criticized American pollsters. He specifically criticized polls conducted by mainstream media, believing that these polls are biased towards the Democratic Party and often produce abnormally favorable results for Harris. 'In France, the situation is different, the credibility of polls is more important: they want the results to be as close to reality as possible,' he wrote. Théo shared a digital table compiled based on the average of RealClearPolitics polls, which shows Trump's excellent performance in the swing state polls in 2020. Considering that the swing state polls for 2024 are very close, Théo deduced that if Trump can have a similar outstanding performance, he will easily take the lead. Théo stated that the polls failed to explain the 'shy Trump voter effect.' Théo wrote that either Trump's supporters are unwilling to tell pollsters that they support the former president, or they do not want to participate in polls. To solve this problem, Théo believes that pollsters should use the so-called neighbor polling, which asks respondents who they expect their neighbors to support. The idea is that people may not want to reveal their preferences, but when asked to guess who their neighbors plan to vote for, they will indirectly reveal their preferences. Théo cited several polls released in September that used neighbor voting and traditional voting methods. These polls showed that when respondents were asked who their neighbors would vote for, Harris's support rate was lower by a few percentage points compared to directly asking them who they support. For Théo, this proved that pollsters once again underestimated Trump's support rate. This data helped him bet that Trump will win the popular vote. When Théo placed his bets, the bettors on Polymarket believed that Trump's chances of winning the popular vote were less than 40%. As Théo celebrated the election results on election night, he revealed another part of his successful betting analysis. In an email, he told The Wall Street Journal that he had commissioned a large polling firm to conduct a survey to measure the neighbor effect, but he refused to reveal the name of the firm. He wrote, 'The survey results are shocking and favorable to Trump!' Théo refused to share these survey results, stating that the protocol he reached with the polling firm requires him to keep the survey results confidential. However, he argued that American polling firms should use neighbor polling in future surveys to avoid embarrassing mistakes. Théo stated: 'If the latest polls measure the neighbor effect, public opinion will be clearer.' Related reports: Wall Street crocodile Bernstein: Regardless of who wins the US presidency, BTC will break through 200,000 US dollars in 2025 Trump's full speech announcing his election: I love Musk, he is a superstar born, making America great again. Pop》What is the US electoral college system? Trump wins Pennsylvania and Michigan, will win 〈Polymarket mysterious Whale wins 50 million US dollars, how did he correctly predict the election results?〉 This article was first published on BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media in the dynamic area.