It is estimated that starting tonight, the global market will start trading the 'Chuan Da Zhi Sheng' market, especially for the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, now it feels optimistic and excited. I have a little different thinking and doubts~ First, in the next 6 to 12 months, it is highly likely that the Federal Reserve's interest rate will drop to around 3.5%. Second, after Trump took office, several basic policy directions, including the game of trade tariffs (between the US and China, China and the US; between the US and the EU, the EU and the US; constantly increasing the cost of trade frictions), America's re-industrialization, and the shrinkage of the supply chain towards the Americas under Monroeism, will quickly push up the wage levels of goods, services, and employment populations. At the same time, the conflict in Ukraine and Russia may end quickly, and trade frictions between the EU and the US may escalate. The situation in the Middle East is more uncertain, and Trump may either lead strong negotiations or more strongly support Israel, with a certain probability of getting involved in the Middle East conflict. The situation in the Western Pacific region is the most uncertain, with many unknown variables. However, Trump's tendency towards isolationism and Monroeism reduces the risk of war in the Eurasian continent but increases the risk of trade frictions in various regions. In the third step, trade frictions and the redistribution of globalized division of labor will throw the boomerang of inflation back to the United States. The level of inflation in the United States, especially core inflation, is likely to remain relatively high. The repeated construction of the global supply chain will not only fail to achieve a 'soft landing' in a certain period but will also repeatedly bring the risk of 'overcapacity' after the so-called 'soft landing' under the devastation of trade frictions to total demand. Under the prevailing trend of nationalism in the era of deglobalization, some unexpected risks may also emerge. Taking all these changes into account, in the most optimistic scenario, it may be difficult to predict a continuous interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve to below 3% to 2.5% within the next Trump administration term, and it is also difficult for US inflation to reach a reasonable level.