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The recently concluded Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Conference became an important event that shook market expectations. Fed Chairman Powell's speech released a clear easing signal, which not only accelerated the pace of the Fed's easing cycle but also fundamentally changed the pricing logic of global assets.
The market reacted quickly to the expectation of this easing, specifically reflected in the following aspects:
First, the policy expectations have become highly clear. According to the CME FedWatch Tool data, the market predicts that the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September has surged from a neutral range before the meeting to 87%, almost viewing 'September rate cut' as a foregone conclusion.
Secondly, the bond market responded first. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which serves as the global benchmark for asset pricing, has fallen from its peak to 4.26%, indicating that investors believe the era of high interest rates is coming to an end, and market risk aversion has clearly eased.
Moreover, the stock market is showing a broad-based upward trend. Driven by expectations of easing, the three major U.S. stock indices have collectively risen. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices continue their rebound momentum, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average even reached a historic high during the session, reflecting the market's dual optimism regarding economic resilience and liquidity easing.
It is worth noting that technology stocks have performed particularly well. Under the expectation of liquidity easing, the high-growth technology sector has been exceptionally bright, with leading stocks represented by Tesla significantly outperforming the market in terms of weekly gains due to strong performance expectations and industry prosperity, becoming the main force driving the index rise and stimulating market enthusiasm.
From the perspective of asset linkage, the expectation that 'the Fed is about to cut interest rates' has become a market consensus, and this expectation is being transmitted to various risk assets. For Bitcoin, which has both risk attributes and is sensitive to liquidity, a macro-level easing environment not only reduces holding costs but may also attract capital seeking high returns to flow into the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, this wave of favorable conditions brought about by the Fed's policy shift is likely to become a key macro support for Bitcoin to break through the current oscillation range and start a new round of upward movement.
Overall, the market reaction after the Jackson Hole meeting indicates that global assets are undergoing a significant repricing process. In this process, Bitcoin, as an emerging alternative asset, may benefit from the improvement in the macro environment, and investors should closely monitor subsequent developments.