The stepped decline of Ethereum after the triangle breakout and the Fibonacci target risk strategy.

The core logic and the weak essence behind "Nianba".

• Triangle breakdown and support failure: The hourly triangle has been broken down, and the support at $3741 (which was once a strong resistance) failed to rebound — "going up is difficult" has become a reality. After the support and resistance switched, $3741 has turned into a strong resistance, and it is difficult to change the previous downward trend without a breakthrough; the stepwise decline corresponds to the previous stepwise rise, and in a weak market, "no one is at a loss," with new lows continuously showing no signs of stopping the decline;

• Downward space of the Fibonacci target: It has fallen to the Fibonacci 1:1 position, and logically there should be a consolidation, but the current situation may test the 1.618 position of $3437, which is about a $200 decline from the current price, so be mentally prepared, as the non-farm data (8:30 PM tonight) may intensify the volatility.

Key Point Trading Strategy

• Long conditions:

1. Breakout at $3631 → Right side to chase long (only short long), target $3639 → $3671, stop loss on breakout;

2. Stand firm at $3639 → lightly add positions, looking up to $3704, if encountering resistance at $3741 then take profit (the resistance swap position has strong pressure);

3. Fall to $3437 (Fibonacci 1.618) → Lightly test long positions in extreme market conditions, stop loss if it falls below $3400 (need a stop-loss signal).

• Short selling conditions:

1. Volume falls below $3612 → Short on the right side, target $3575 → $3525, if the rebound cannot recover, stop loss;

2. 4-hour level falls below $3575 → increase short position, targeting $3480, if it breaks then accelerate towards $3437;

3. The lower boundary of the triangle (current resistance) encounters resistance → go short until the next level of support, without expecting an early rebound.

The linkage risk between the shape and non-farm data

• Continuation of stepped fall:

◦ Every time a support level is broken (such as from 3600 to 3575 dollars), it will become new resistance. If the rebound is weak, it will continue to decline. Do not buy the dip before there is a clear stop to the fall;

• Impact of Non-Farm Data:

◦ Data release may trigger spikes, increasing volatility. It is advisable to reduce positions in advance or set wide stop-losses to avoid being stopped out by extreme market conditions. Volatility may continue over the weekend, so vigilance is required.

Discipline in Operations and the Trading Philosophy of "Keeping a Low Profile"

• Go with the flow in a weak position:

◦ A few days ago, during the "arrogant" phase, I did not chase long positions; now, during the "wilted" phase, I do not bottom-fish. I follow the rhythm of the stepwise decline, focusing on short positions and only making ultra-short rebounds for long positions;

• Rational perspective on Fibonacci targets:

◦ $3437 is a potential target, but we need to verify the support at $3575→$3480 step by step, without making assumptions about the bottom all at once. Wait for a volume increase and a stop-loss signal before taking action.

Summary: The downtrend of Ethereum is clear, with the core operation being: follow up on short positions relying on the break below $3612, closely monitor the Fibonacci target of $3437, control positions before the non-farm data to prevent spike, and do not go against the stepwise decline.