As of August 1, 2025, the trend of Ethereum (ETH) shows a short-term pullback, but the overall market structure still maintains a certain level of resilience. Here are the key analyses of today's ETH trend:

1. Price performance and key support/resistance levels Current price: ETH broke below $3700, now at $3699.25, 24-hour decline of 3.20%.
Short-term support:
$3,680–$3,700 (near the 10-day moving average) is a key support level. If it breaks down, it may further dip to $3,480.
Some technical analysis suggests that if ETH drops below $3,265, it may trigger a deeper pullback to $2,945.
Resistance level:
$3,960 is a key resistance level recently, and a breakout could challenge $4,000 and above.
The long-term target remains $4,200–$4,300, but market sentiment needs to improve.
2. Market Driving Factors ETF Inflows: In July, a total inflow of $510 million, showing strong institutional demand.
Exchange reserves decrease: 1 million ETH reduction in the past 30 days indicates a long-term holding trend.
Macroeconomic impact: Adjustments to U.S. tariff policies (such as increasing tariffs on countries like India and Turkey) may exacerbate market risk aversion and weigh on risk assets like ETH.
Derivatives Market:
$169 million liquidated within an hour, with long positions accounting for 96% ($163 million), indicating that leveraged bulls were liquidated.
The increase in futures trading volume but a decrease in open interest suggests short-term profit taking.
3. Technical Indicator Analysis RSI (Relative Strength Index): Previously reached as high as 74.6 (overbought), the current pullback is a reasonable correction.
Moving Average: ETH is still above the 50-day ($2,752) and 200-day moving averages ($2,404), indicating that the long-term trend remains intact.
Rainbow chart prediction: The long-term model remains optimistic about ETH, expecting $4,752–$6,901 to be the "HODL" range, but short-term may maintain a fluctuation of $3,700–$4,000.
4. Market sentiment and future outlook Short term: Affected by macro uncertainty and technical overbought, ETH may continue to pullback to test the $3,480–$3,680 support.
Medium to long term: If ETF funds continue to flow in and exchange reserves remain low, ETH is still likely to hit $4,000.
In conclusion, today's ETH trend is suppressed by short-term profit taking and macro headwinds, but institutional holdings and ETF demand provide support. Investors need to pay attention to whether the $3,680 support level is stable; if it breaks, it may exacerbate the downward risk; on the contrary, if it holds and breaks through $3,960, it may restart the upward trend.