Bitcoin Weekly Report: Second largest fall this period, global economic uncertainty intensifies

This week's opening price of Bitcoin was $94265.47, and the closing price was $80699.17, with a weekly fall of 14.39% and a volatility of 15.29%. Although the trading volume decreased compared to last week, it still remained high. The price of Bitcoin has broken below the box range of $89000 to $110000, significantly retracting previous gains.

In the past two weeks, the Bitcoin market has experienced extreme fluctuations. The uncertainty of global economic policies has increased, and the U.S. stock market has started trading on "recession" expectations, giving back most of its previous gains. This has led to the largest outflow of funds since the establishment of the Bitcoin spot ETF.

On the other hand, the U.S. government has conveyed some positive signals regarding cryptocurrency regulation and application. For example, it hosted the first White House cryptocurrency summit to discuss the regulation and use cases of crypto assets. Additionally, Texas has passed a state-level Bitcoin reserve bill, indicating that the policy environment for crypto assets in the U.S. is gradually improving.

However, investor sentiment dominated short-term price movements. With the pullback in US stocks, Bitcoin fell 14.39% this week, marking the second largest weekly drop in this cycle. Although it did not fall below the lowest point on February 28, it has fallen below the 200-day bull-bear dividing line. The Fear and Greed Index has dropped back to a level of "extreme fear" at 20 points.

The non-farm employment data released on Friday showed a slowdown in the job market. In February, non-farm employment increased by 151,000, slightly below market expectations. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from 4% to 4.1%, reaching a new high since November of last year.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that despite uncertainties, the current economic situation in the United States remains good, with a robust and balanced job market. He believes there is no need to rush to adjust the policy rate at this stage and can patiently wait for the situation to become clearer. Powell also pointed out that they are assessing the impacts of changes in trade policy, which have intensified economic uncertainty.

Due to signs of weakening economic data and adjustments in the stock market, traders' latest expectations are that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates 3 times this year, by about 75 basis points. As a result, the US dollar index fell by 3.52% for the week, closing at 103.882. The Nasdaq index rebounded on Friday, closing above the yearly line, while the S&P 500 index closed above the 200-day line.

From a technical perspective, the trend of Bitcoin remains pessimistic. The price has fallen out of the previous range and is operating below the first trend line of the bull market. Since the historical high on January 21, Bitcoin has formed a descending channel, repeatedly suppressing rebounds. On Sunday night, bears launched another offensive, and Bitcoin fell below the 200-day moving average. The market is currently in an extremely oversold state, but recovering from this downturn may require more external conditions and time.

On-chain data shows that selling pressure has decreased this week, but buying strength is still insufficient. The overall market floating profit rate is 198%, long-term holders are at 347%, and short-term holders are facing a floating loss of 6%. Short-term holders continue to face pressure, which is often a good opportunity for medium-term entry in a bull market.

Compared to last week when there was a net outflow of 4.081 billion in the dual-channel, this week's funding pressure has eased, with a total inflow of 1.295 billion USD. Among them, stablecoins inflowed 2.107 billion USD, and Bitcoin spot ETFs had an outflow of 719 million USD. The outflow of funds from ETFs is the primary source of pressure leading to the market fall.

In February, the 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States experienced the largest outflow of funds since their approval, reaching $2.3 billion. Entering March, although the outflow continued, the scale decreased. The outflow group included retail and institutional investors' sell-offs, as well as the position liquidation of CME contract arbitrage traders.

From the perspective of the conduction path, Bitcoin prices need the U.S. stock market to stabilize first, and ETF holders need to shift from net outflows to net inflows. The market is currently in a rising consolidation phase, and future trends still require close attention to global economic data and policy developments.