The directional dilemma after the Bitcoin triangular convergence volume breakout and the fluctuation warning entangled with EMA.

The essence of core logic and sideways grinding

• Repeated triangle pattern and hidden risk of shrinking volume: After breaking out of the triangle at the 4-hour level, it fell back, and the subsequent breakout was accompanied by a rise in shrinking volume—breakouts without volume support are hard to sustain. If the rebound does not break the high point of the left yellow arrow, it will return to oscillation within the triangle; moreover, above 119500 dollars, there are all upper wicks with no solid bullish candlestick, indicating that the bulls are weak, and the concern of "long periods of consolidation leading to a drop" has technical support.

• Low cost-performance at the middle position: stuck between 118300-119500 USD, unable to rise or break down, long positions are limited to short-term (need to break through 119500 USD), short positions need to wait for the break of 118300 USD and continuation, otherwise all operations are invalid. "Wait for a clear direction before acting" is the optimal solution.

Key Level Trading Strategy

• Long position conditions:

1. Breakout with volume at 118,971 USD → light long position, target 119,597 USD, stop loss if it doesn't break;

2. Stand firm at 119597 dollars → Increase short positions, looking at 120550 dollars, need sudden increase in volume to match, otherwise take profit at any time.

• Short sell conditions:

1. If the volume drops below $118,737 → short with a light position, target $118,300 → $117,841, if the rebound cannot recover, set a stop loss;

2. The 4-hour level breaks below $117,841 → Short to $116,909, if it breaks further, it will go to $115,250, requiring volume confirmation.

Signal entangled with shape and EMA

• The ultimate choice of triangular convergence:

◦ In a state of reduced volume, a breakout above $119,500 will reverse the weakness; otherwise, the pattern of "lower and lower rebound highs" will continue, leaning towards a downward breakout.

• The fluctuation indicated by EMA entanglement:

◦ After the entanglement of moving averages, there will be significant Fluctuation. Combined with the characteristics of reduced volume and upper wick, the probability of a downward breakout is higher, and one must be cautious of the accelerated market after the breakdown.

Discipline in Operations and the Principle of Waiting

• Reject the middle position betting direction:

◦ Do not be greedy for small profits from short longs or short shorts, avoid being stopped out back and forth in a "no up no down" situation, wait for the breakout above 119500 USD or the breakdown below 118300 USD with volume, and then follow the trend.

• Decisiveness after the breakthrough:

◦ If it breaks downward, do not hesitate or try to catch the bottom; if it unexpectedly breaks upward with volume, you need to quickly change your mindset and not be stubbornly bearish.

Summary: During the Bitcoin consolidation period, one must be patient. The core operation is to abandon middle position trades and wait for a clear breakout direction from the triangle pattern. After the EMA entanglement, a large fluctuation is likely to go down. Be prepared to follow the breakdown and take short positions, and do not fight against the volume-reduced rebound.