#以太坊交易量飙升# Ethereum spot trading volume has exceeded Bitcoin for the first time in over a year, and the market may be entering a new cycle. Is alt season coming?

Ethereum's spot trading volume has surpassed Bitcoin's for the first time in over a year (25.7 billion USD vs. 24.4 billion USD). This phenomenon indeed releases multiple market signals. Currently, the inflow of funds into Ethereum ETFs is strong, with 2.18 billion USD flowing in from July 14 to 18, while Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows during the same period, which may drive capital rotation. In addition, ETH's price performance has been strong, rising 26% over the past week, while Bitcoin has declined, which may also attract more investors to turn to altcoins.
In terms of technical analysis, ETH has broken through $3800, potentially hitting $4000. Analysts predict a short-term target of $4000-4500, with a medium-term possibility of reaching $8000-10000. However, the RSI is overbought, which may pose a risk of a pullback. At the same time, the exchange's ETH reserves are decreasing, indicating an increase in long-term holders, which could support the price.
Regulatory factors, such as the potential approval of an ETH staking ETF by the United States, could attract more institutional funds and drive up prices. The development of Layer 2 will also enhance the Ethereum ecosystem, promote more applications, and consequently boost demand.
Ethereum spot trading volume has exceeded Bitcoin for the first time in over a year (25.7 billion USD vs. 24.4 billion USD). This phenomenon, combined with recent market dynamics, indeed signals the possible onset of an alt season, but the sustainability of this trend needs to be assessed through multiple indicators.
Is the alt season starting? Three major signals need to be verified.
The synergy between price and volume
ETH/BTC exchange rate: The current rate has rebounded to 0.021 (the 2024 low was 0.018). If it breaks through 0.03 (the threshold for the start of the 2021 alt season), it may confirm a continued inflow of funds into altcoins.
altcoin index performance:
The Altcoin Season Index is currently at 54, close to the activation threshold of 75%, but has recently dropped from 62 to 48, indicating that the sector rotation has not yet fully unfolded.
Market sentiment and liquidity fear and greed index:
The current market sentiment is "neutral to cautious" (58/100), not reaching the extreme greed level (85+) seen before the start of the alt season in 2021.
M2 Supply and Fund Increment: The global M2 money supply has increased by 8.3% year-on-year, but the total market value of cryptocurrencies only accounts for 0.3% of global assets, indicating that there is still room for incremental funds to enter.
Regulatory and technological catalysts for the Cancun upgrade expectations: The Ethereum Cancun upgrade in Q4 2025 will reduce Layer 2 gas fees, possibly further activating the ecosystem.
Regulatory clarity: The progress of the US SEC's approval of ETH-staking ETFs (if approved, it will attract hundreds of billions of dollars) and the implementation of the EU's MiCA regulation will affect the flow of funds.
Current market phase judgment cycle positioning: early stage of alt season
Bitcoin is still in the upward phase after the halving cycle (2024), but volatility has dropped to a historic low (2.72%), and the market has entered the mid-stage of a "structural bull market." Ethereum's volume has overtaken, marking a transition of funds from "BTC monopoly" to "ecological diversification," but it remains to be seen whether other altcoins (such as SOL, XRP, ADA) will follow.