Bank of America predicts that the U.S. will avoid an economic recession in 2025 and that the Fed may not cut interest rates this year.

On July 21, Bank of America predicted that despite the market's expectations for interest rate cuts, the U.S. economy will avoid recession in 2025, and the Fed will not cut interest rates this year. The bank noted that strong consumer spending and rising goods inflation indicate that the economy remains resilient, and mentioned that June retail sales data exceeded expectations.

The Bank of America warns that politically motivated interest rate cuts could undermine the stability of inflation expectations and increase credit risks. Looking ahead, the bank expects a slight rise in unemployment claims, stable housing data, while Friday's durable goods orders are likely to decline by 11%.