Market Opinion

rotations and btc round2

The current Bitcoin consolidation can be compared to the period from November 12-18, 2024. The difference this time is that due to companies like ETF and SBet, Ethereum is experiencing a catch-up (ebðusdt).

Overall, there are two predictions for the upcoming market.

1. Bitcoin will have round 2 (second round of rise). Since April 7, Bitcoin has shown a pulsing rise, followed by consolidation with sideways movement and slight downturns. For example, from May 9 to 17, from May 23 to June 5, and from June 12 to 22, each consolidation lasted between 7 to 14 days. Based on the peak on July 14, Bitcoin may consolidate for 1-2 weeks before continuing to rise.
Considering the reverse issues before and after the FOMC, although it seems not applicable in trending markets; if it is applicable, there may be a peak before July 31 followed by a decline, which means it should start to rise again soon. (If the rise lasts for 4-5 days, it means the rise should not be later than the 26th.)

2. rotation

The symptoms of the rise since April in this round are: during the 4-5 days when Bitcoin surges, altcoins follow with a sharp increase; when Bitcoin is sideways or experiences a downtrend, altcoins plummet. However, after reaching a peak on July 14, altcoins did not decline, and the reason is the significant rebound of Ethereum.

There are two perspectives to consider. The first is, "This is not true inexpressibility, because true inexpressibility should not be followed by any altcoin." The second is, "This is true inexpressibility, because Ethereum is the biggest altcoin; Ethereum and altcoins will always rise and fall together."

Regardless of the perspective, if Ethereum stops rising, it will be relatively dangerous for altcoins.

At the same time, we observed that the increase in total3 is much higher than that of others. The current risk appetite curve is tilted towards large-cap assets. If large-cap assets can take over (after Ethereum stops) and initiate a new rally, it is expected to raise the overall ceiling for altcoins.

If the large market cap stops when Ethereum music stops, then perhaps the limit is when the eb exchange rate peaks.