Crypto market Q3 macro report: Selective bull run is brewing, institutions are adopting to drive structural trends.

1. The macro turning point has arrived: Policy warming and institutional momentum resonance

As the third quarter of 2025 begins, the macro landscape is quietly changing. The policy environment that once pushed digital assets to the fringes has now transformed into an institutional driving force. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve ending its interest rate hike cycle, fiscal policy returning to a stimulus track, and the accelerated construction of a global crypto regulatory framework, the crypto market is on the eve of a structural re-evaluation.

In terms of monetary policy, the liquidity environment in the United States has entered a critical turning point. Despite the Federal Reserve emphasizing "data dependence", the market has reached a consensus on interest rate cuts within 2025. The government's pressure on the Fed to politicize monetary policy tools indicates that real interest rates in the U.S. will gradually decline between the second half of 2025 and 2026. This opens up upside potential for the valuation of digital assets.

In terms of finance, expansionary policies represented by the "Big Beautiful Law" have led to unprecedented capital release. The government has made substantial investments in areas such as manufacturing reshoring and AI infrastructure, creating a "capital flood" that spans traditional industries and emerging fields. This not only reshapes the dollar's internal circulation structure but also indirectly strengthens the demand for digital assets.

The regulatory attitude has also undergone a qualitative change. The SEC has for the first time acknowledged that digital assets with yield structures can enter the traditional financial system, and has begun to formulate a unified token ETF approval standard. This marks a shift in regulatory logic from "firewall" to "pipeline engineering," signifying that encryption assets are being incorporated into financial infrastructure planning.

The compliance race in the Asian region is heating up, with financial centers like Hong Kong and Singapore vying for the compliance dividends of stablecoins, payment licenses, and Web3 innovation projects. The trend of integration between sovereign capital and internet giants has begun, and stablecoins are becoming part of payment networks, corporate settlements, and even national financial strategies.

The risk appetite in the traditional financial market has recovered, with tech stocks and emerging assets rebounding in sync, the IPO market warming up, and increased user activity on retail platforms. Risk capital is no longer solely focused on AI and biotechnology, but is beginning to re-evaluate blockchain, encryption finance, and on-chain structured yield assets.

Under the dual drivers of policy and market, the brewing of a new bull run is not driven by emotions, but rather a process of value re-evaluation driven by systems. Global capital markets are beginning to pay a premium for deterministic assets, and the spring of the crypto market is returning in a milder yet more powerful way.

2. Structural Turnover: Enterprises and Institutions Leading the Next Bull Run

The most notable structural change currently in the crypto market is the shift of chips from retail investors to long-term holders, corporate treasuries, and financial institutions. After two years of reconstruction, users centered on speculation are gradually being marginalized, while institutions and enterprises aimed at allocation have become the decisive force driving the next bull run.

The performance of Bitcoin says it all. In the past three quarters, listed companies have purchased more Bitcoin than the net buying scale of ETFs. Enterprises view Bitcoin as a "strategic cash substitute," with stronger holding resilience.

Financial infrastructure clears the obstacles for institutional capital inflow. The approval of staking ETFs means that institutions are starting to include "on-chain yield assets" into traditional portfolios. This will fundamentally change traditional asset managers' perception of crypto assets, prompting institutions to shift from risk hedging to yield allocation.

Enterprises directly participate in the on-chain financial market, breaking the isolation between "over-the-counter investment" and the on-chain world. This type of capital injection, colored by "industrial mergers and acquisitions" and "strategic layout", aims to lock in the core asset rights and revenue distribution rights of the new financial infrastructure.

Traditional finance is actively laying out in the derivatives and on-chain liquidity sectors. The record high trading volume of crypto futures on CME indicates that traditional institutions have integrated crypto assets into their strategy models. The entry of players such as hedge funds and structured product providers will enhance the market's "liquidity density" and "depth."

The decrease in activity among retail investors and short-term players reinforces the aforementioned trend. On-chain data shows that the proportion of short-term holders continues to decline, and the activity of early large holders is decreasing, indicating that the market is in a "turnover sedimentation period".

The "productization capability" of financial institutions is rapidly taking shape. From traditional banks to emerging retail financial platforms, they are all expanding the trading, staking, lending, and payment capabilities of crypto assets. This enables crypto assets to achieve "usability within the fiat currency system," and also provides them with richer financial attributes.

Essentially, this round of turnover is a deep expansion of the "financial commodification" of crypto assets and a reshaping of the value discovery logic. The dominant players in the market have shifted to institutions and enterprises with medium to long-term strategic planning, clear allocation logic, and stable funding structures. A institutionalized and structured bull run is brewing, which will be more solid, lasting, and thorough.

3. The Era of Imitation: From General Rise to "Selective Bull Run"

The "altcoin season" of 2025 has entered a new stage: the broad market rally is no longer, replaced by a "selective bull run" driven by ETFs, real yields, and institutional adoption. This is a sign of the maturation of the crypto market and an inevitable result of the capital selection mechanism after the market returns to rationality.

From the structural signals, the mainstream altcoin assets have completed a new round of accumulation. The ETH/BTC pair has seen a strong rebound, with large addresses quickly accumulating, and large on-chain transactions occurring frequently, indicating that the main funds are beginning to reprice primary assets. Retail investor sentiment remains low, creating an ideal "low interference" environment for the next round of market activity.

This time, the altcoin market will not be "flying together", but rather "each flying on its own". ETF applications have become the anchor point for the new round of thematic structure. Particularly, the spot ETF for Solana has been viewed as the next "market consensus event". Asset performance will revolve around "whether there is ETF potential, whether there is true profit distribution capability, and whether it can attract institutional allocation", presenting a differentiated evolution.

DeFi is also an important arena in this "selective bull run," and its logic has fundamentally changed. Users are shifting towards "cash flow DeFi," with protocol revenue, stablecoin yield strategies, and re-staking mechanisms becoming core indicators for assessing asset value. Liquidity providers place greater emphasis on strategy transparency, yield sustainability, and potential risk structures.

Capital selection becomes more "realistic". Stablecoin strategies backed by real-world assets (RWA) are favored by institutions, while cross-chain liquidity integration and user experience unification become key factors determining the direction of funds. Infrastructure and composable protocols built around L1 public chains become the new valuation core.

The speculative part of the market is also shifting. While meme coins still have popularity, the era of "everyone pulling up the price" is over. Mainstream capital is more inclined to allocate resources to projects that can provide sustainable returns, have real users, and strong narrative support, opting to forgo explosive returns in favor of a more certain growth path.

In summary, the core of this round of altcoin season lies in "which assets have the potential to be incorporated into traditional financial logic." The crypto market is undergoing a deep value reassessment cycle. A selective bull run is not a weakening of the bull market, but rather an upgrade of the bull market. The future will belong to those who understand the narrative logic, comprehend the financial structure, and are willing to quietly accumulate positions in a "quiet market."

4. Q3 Investment Framework: From Core Allocation to Event-Driven

The investment strategy for Q3 2025 must abandon the "flood irrigation" betting mindset and shift towards a hybrid strategy of "anchored by core, driven by events." In the new environment of expanding ETF capital base, the market is reshaping a new valuation system of "mainstream assets + thematic narratives + real returns."

Bitcoin remains the preferred core position. In an environment where ETF inflows have not reversed, corporate treasury holdings continue to increase, and the Federal Reserve has released dovish signals, BTC demonstrates strong resilience against declines and a capital siphoning effect. Even if it has not yet reached a new high, its chip structure and capital attributes still make it the most stable underlying asset in the current cycle.

Solana is the most thematic explosive asset in Q3. With the staking mechanism expected to be incorporated into the ETF structure, its "quasi-dividend asset" attribute attracts a large amount of capital for pre-positioning. This narrative will drive the governance tokens of SOL spot and its staking ecosystem. For funds that missed the BTC market at the beginning of the year, the Solana sector will become a strategic option for "catching up" or even "leading the rise."

The DeFi portfolio is worth restructuring, focusing on protocols with stable cash flow, real yield distribution capabilities, and mature governance mechanisms. Configurable projects like SYRUP, LQTY, EUL, FLUID, etc., adopt an equal-weight allocation method to capture relative returns. Such protocols often have characteristics of "slow capital recovery and delayed explosion" and should be treated with a medium-term allocation mindset.

In terms of speculative positions, exposure to Meme assets should be strictly controlled, limited to within 5% of total asset net value, and managed with an options mindset. Set clear stop-loss mechanisms, take-profit rules, and position limits. For investors accustomed to event-driven trading, these assets can serve as tools for emotional averaging, but should not be misjudged as trend core.

The key in the third quarter is to grasp the timing of event-driven layout. The current market is transitioning from an "information vacuum" to an "event-intensive release." With the Solana ETF review node approaching, it is expected that there will be a "policy + capital resonance" market from mid-August to early September. This type of event layout should be anticipated in advance and gradually built up to avoid chasing high traps.

Attention needs to be paid to the volume momentum of structural alternative themes. For example, the construction of Robinhood L2 and tokenized stock trading may ignite a new narrative of "exchange chains" and RWA integration; projects like $H and $SAHARA may become "explosive points" in the fringe sector. For investors who can deeply analyze roadmaps, these early opportunities can be part of a high-volatility strategy, but it is essential to control positions and adhere to risk management.

Overall, Bitcoin is the anchor, SOL is the banner, DeFi is the structure, Meme is the supplement, and events are the accelerators ------ each part corresponds to different position weights and trading rhythms. The success of investors lies in whether they can understand the capital logic behind this round of changes.

V. Conclusion: The next round of wealth migration is already on the way.

A selective bull run led by institutions, driven by compliance, and supported by real earnings is brewing. Bitcoin is becoming a new reserve component in the balance sheets of global enterprises and a national-level inflation hedging tool. The factors that will have the greatest impact on its price in the future are institutional buying records, allocation decisions of pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, and the repricing of risk asset valuation systems based on macro policy expectations.

The infrastructure and assets representing the next generation of financial paradigms are evolving from "narrative bubbles" to "system takeovers." Crypto assets such as Solana, EigenLayer, L2 Rollup, RWA vaults, and re-staked bonds are transitioning from "anarchic capital experiments" to "predictable institutional assets," leading the direction of the next wave of capital tides.

The altcoin season has deteriorated. The next market cycle will be more closely tied to real yields, user growth, and institutional access. Protocols that can provide stable yield expectations for institutions, assets that can attract stable funds through ETF channels, and DeFi projects with RWA mapping capabilities will become the "blue chips" in the new cycle. This is an elitist "altcoin" phase, a selective bull run that eliminates 99% of pseudo-assets.

Ordinary investors face both challenges and opportunities. When the market asks "Where is the next breakout point?", you need to ask, "Am I standing on the right structure?" The reconstruction of position structure, rather than the偶然 of a violent game, determines whether one can profit from the main rising wave.

The third quarter of 2025 will be a prelude to this wealth migration. The next bull run will not ring a bell for anyone; it will only reward those who think ahead of the market. Now is the time to seriously plan your position structure, information sources, and trading rhythm. Wealth will not be distributed at the peak, but will quietly shift before dawn.