Crypto Market Weekly Report: Notcoin Sparks Attention Economy Boom, Pump.fun Faces Attack Incident

Market Viewpoint

macro liquidity

Currency liquidity shows signs of improvement. The U.S. April CPI growth rate has slowed down, and the year-on-year increase in core CPI has reached the smallest increment in nearly three years. Market expectations for an interest rate cut have heated up again, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut exceeding 80% by the time of the September Federal Reserve meeting. As a result, U.S. stocks surged significantly and reached a new all-time high, while the dollar index fell sharply. The crypto market followed the strong rebound of U.S. stocks.

All Market Trends

This week, Bitcoin fluctuated and rebounded, while the exchange rate of Ethereum against Bitcoin fell to a three-year low. The market's main focus is on Meme and AI-related sectors. The original popular US stock GME surged several times, driving the speculative sentiment for Meme coins.

1. PEOPLE: The Meme coins related to the US elections, such as PEOPLE and MAGA under Polifi, have risen significantly. These coins may continue to attract attention before the November elections.

2. BB: Bouncebit's performance on a certain trading platform has been mediocre. BB is a BTC re-staking protocol that plans to develop a futures arbitrage product similar to Ethna in the future. Recently, the overall performance of the BTC ecosystem has been weaker than the market.

3. NOTE: Notcoin is a game Meme coin in the TON ecosystem, obtained through mobile click mining, with 30 million users and 5 million daily active users. Notcoin adopted a 100% full circulation model when it was listed on a certain trading platform.

BTC market analysis

1. On-chain data

Investment sentiment has cooled after the halving. Although historically, BTC halving is seen as a long-term positive event, it often triggers market sell-offs in the short term, as seen in similar situations in 2016 and 2020.

The market capitalization of stablecoins remains stable, and the fundamental outlook for long-term capital is still positive.

The MVRV-ZScore indicator is currently at 2.4, entering the middle stage. This indicator is in the top range when it is greater than 6, and in the bottom range when it is less than 2.

Institutional funds are showing a net inflow trend again. However, the inflow of funds into ETH is insufficient, and the market expects that the ETH spot ETF is unlikely to be approved in the short term.

2. Futures Market

Futures funding rate: This week's rate is close to 0.

Futures Open Interest: This week, BTC open interest has significantly increased, indicating that major funds are entering the market.

Futures long-short ratio: 0.8, reflecting a bearish market sentiment.

3. Spot Market

BTC has seen a slight rebound, and the market is likely to maintain wide fluctuations before the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in September. BTC mining hash rate has decreased for two consecutive months, with the shutdown price currently around 55,000 USD. During this cycle, altcoins have been a topic of controversy, with an average circulation rate of only 13%, far below the previous cycle's over 20%, making them susceptible to negative impacts from unlocked chips. In contrast, community Meme coins, with a chip structure close to full circulation, have become the main direction of market consensus.

Market Data

public chain TVL situation

This week's total TVL reached 93.2 billion USD, an increase of approximately 2.7 billion USD, with a growth rate of about 3%. The TVL of mainstream public chains rose primarily, with SOLANA chain having the largest increase at 11%. The MODE chain performed the best, with a TVL of about 500 million USD, a weekly growth rate of 17%, and a monthly growth rate of 175%.

NFT market data

This week, the floor prices of blue-chip projects in the NFT market fluctuated, while the overall market continued to hover at low levels, showing no significant signs of recovery. Trading volume continued to decline, with both the number of first-time buyers and repeat users decreasing.

latest financing situation

Recently, multiple projects have completed financing, involving various fields such as DeFi, NFT, and infrastructure.

Post-Investment Dynamics

1. EthStorage received its third grant from Optimism to enhance the availability of EIP-4844 Blob through the integration of OP Stack.

2. Accseal has made breakthroughs in the ZKP hardware acceleration field and plans to establish a strategic partnership with Ingonyama to expand its ZK cloud computing business.

3. bitSmiley is launching on the Merlin mainnet, allocating 1.5% of the total supply for a liquidity reward program, while users can earn bitPoint points for double rewards.