The turmoil in the global bond market has spurred demand for safe-haven assets, and Bitcoin may become the biggest winner.

Japan's National Debt Crisis Sounds the Global Alarm

On July 15, Japan's 30-year government bond yield surpassed the historical threshold of 3.2%, according to calculations from The Kobeissi Letter:

• Japan's government bonds have unrealized losses of 198 billion dollars.
• The debt/GDP ratio has risen to the warning level of 235%.
• Long-term government bonds have shrunk in actual value by 45% since 2019.

Former BlackRock executive Javier Rodriguez-Alarcón pointed out: "This is not only a problem for Japan, but the US Treasury market is also facing liquidity exhaustion—current government bond liquidity is even lower than during the 2008 financial crisis."

The US Treasury Market Faces Pressure, Yield Quadruples in Four Years

The U.S. Treasury market shows a similar trend:

• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen by 40-60 basis points this year.
• Compared to the low point in 2020, the yield has increased over four times.
• Continuous fiscal deficits and increasing government bond issuance intensify market pressure.

"This is precisely the fundamental reason why Bitcoin and gold have reached new all-time highs together," The Kobeissi Letter analyzes, "When traditional 'risk-free assets' are no longer safe, capital will inevitably seek new avenues."

Bitcoin Exhibits Macro Hedge Properties

Market behavior shows that Bitcoin is gaining the status of a safe-haven asset:

• Bitcoin spot ETF cumulative inflow exceeds $3 billion
• Ethereum spot ETF raised $1 billion during the same period
• On-chain data has detected layered buy orders at the 2%/5%/10% price levels.

Rodriguez-Alarcón emphasized: "As a structurally scarce asset, the next phase of Bitcoin's rise will depend on the continued influx of institutional funds under the multiple benefits of policy, fiscal, and monetary easing."

Short-term fluctuations do not change the long-term trend

Despite Bitcoin falling 5% from its historical high of $123,300 on July 14, CoinGlass data shows:

• Over $300 million in long positions were liquidated in the past 12 hours.
• The bearish sentiment in the options market has明显减弱.
• Historical data shows that similar technical patterns are often followed by rebounds.

Analysts believe that under the uncertainties of tariff policies in the U.S. presidential election, the demand for "preventive allocation" will continue to support the cryptocurrency market.