Market Observation Weekly Report [6.9 - 6.13]: Geopolitical disturbances and cautious capital resonate, Mainstream Token fluctuates and adjusts, market consolidates at high positions.

Geopolitical conflicts affect market sentiment, mainstream tokens fluctuate and consolidate, while altcoins face resistance in their upward momentum

Macroeconomic situation causes fluctuations, market remains cautious:

• The tense situation in the Middle East has led to a rise in short-term risk aversion, a decrease in volatility, an increase in expectations for a Fed rate cut, and an overall atmosphere of caution.

The momentum of capital inflow is weakening:

• Cryptocurrency investment funds saw a net inflow of $1.02 billion, but the growth rate has slowed down. The issuance growth rate of stablecoins has decreased, and the USDT premium has retreated, indicating a cautious attitude towards capital inflow.

Mainstream Token performance is diverging, Bitcoin is consolidating at a high level, and Ethereum is pulling back after a rise:

• Bitcoin encounters resistance and falls back after a surge, Ethereum rises but lacks momentum, institutional investors continue to increase their holdings, and the overall structure is moderately strong.

Liquidity improvement for small market cap coins, but upside is limited:

• The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies other than mainstream tokens has rebounded and then fallen again, with market share stabilizing, and the on-chain activity indicator at 53, still in a weak range.
• Currently in the final stage of consolidation, short-term observation is needed for the funding breakthrough coordination, pay attention to whether the structure of small-cap coins strengthens and the signs of funding inflow into mainstream tokens.

1. Macroeconomic Environment and Market Overview

• Geopolitical Situation: The situation in the Middle East is tense but the risk of a full-scale war is limited, with the United States providing support but not directly intervening.
• Market reaction: Oil prices rose due to sentiment, Bitcoin fell to $105,000, US stocks rebounded, volatility decreased, and the market tended to stabilize.
• Monetary Policy: Expectations for a rate cut in July have increased, the Federal Reserve weighs inflation and economic growth, and geopolitical factors may influence decision-making.

2. Capital Flow Analysis and Mainstream Token Market Structure

External Capital Flow

• Investment Fund: This week net inflow of 2.8 billion USD, the inflow scale is significant.
• Stablecoin: This week, an issuance of 2.3 billion USD was made, with an average daily issuance of 321 million USD, which is at a high level.

Market Sentiment Indicator

• **Premium on OTC: ** The premium on stablecoins continues to rise slightly.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Technical Analysis: The price is in a volatile upward range.
• On-chain data: Chips over $103,000 continue to increase

Ethereum (ETH)

• Performance weaker than BTC, ETH/BTC ratio remains volatile, with funds continuously flowing towards BTC.
• On-chain activities: The increase in the number of active addresses may indicate that a temporary bottom has formed.