0702 Bitcoin market report 📢📢📣📣 #特朗普马斯克分歧#

The price of Bitcoin has been fluctuating violently in the range of $105,000 to $107,000, with the technical aspect showing an intensified tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Currently, it is oscillating in the range of $106,000 to $106,800. If it can hold above the resistance at $106,800, it is likely to test $107,500. Conversely, if it breaks below the support at $106,000, it may drop to $105,600 (4-hour chart E-MA 60 support). On-chain data shows: whales (holding more than 1000 B-TC)) reduced their holdings by 8,000 in the last two days as Bitcoin failed to hold above $108,000, but other whales that have already deposited into exchanges chose to stay on the sidelines, not triggering a selling wave. Notably, BlackRock I-BIT's daily net inflow has decreased to $70 million, marking a new low for the past two weeks. The technical perspective shows that after a short-term overselling, there is a demand for correction, but overall it remains weak, suggesting a downward oscillation.

🔊🔊 Indicator Signal: The short-term moving average MA-10 has crossed above MA-30, forming a "Golden Cross," but the price is still held down by MA-60, and it is necessary to observe whether it can effectively break through. If it is hindered, it may continue to decline; the daily St-och has risen from the oversold area of 28.5 to 40.2, and short-term attention should be paid to the strength of the rebound, but combined with the MA-CD dead cross, the rebound may be an opportunity to short.

🔊🔊Pattern Analysis: After the 4-hour Bollinger Bands narrowed and opened downwards, the price continues to operate near the lower band ($105,600), indicating bearish strength. If it retraces and encounters resistance near the middle band ($107,300), it may continue to oscillate downwards. On the daily chart: the price stabilizes at $105,000, forming a "bearish arrangement" pattern, which requires caution for further downward probing. Conversely, if the price rebounds and stabilizes above $107,000, it may reverse the short-term downward trend.

🔔🔔Technical and External Risks: A decrease in trading volume may trigger a rebound, but one must be wary of false breakouts. If the price fails to effectively break through the resistance at $107,500, it may form a "double top" pattern, and the oscillating decline may exacerbate a deep retracement to the $103,600-$102,200 consolidation; be cautious of the escalation of external geopolitical conflicts which may lead to severe price fluctuations.

🔒🔒Summary and Outlook: Bitcoin is currently at a critical stage dominated by short-term bears and awaiting mid-term trend repair. In the short-term decision-making period, attention should be paid to the breakout direction in the range of 10600-107500 dollars. The technical aspect shows that bullish strength has recovered, with good volume-price coordination; however, it is particularly crucial to be vigilant about profit-taking selling pressure from the resistance above. It is recommended to dynamically adjust strategies and flexibly use stop-loss and take-profit strategies.

🔑🔑: Trading Suggestions: 1. Range Trading: Buy low and sell high within the range of 105250-107250 USD, setting take profit and stop loss at 10.38, 10.62, and 10.58 USD. 2. If it breaks 106800 USD with an increase in trading volume, you can enter with a small position, targeting 107500-108000 USD, with a stop loss set at 106200 USD. 3. If it falls below the 106000 USD support, you can try to short at the rebound at 10.63 USD, targeting 105300, with a stop loss set at 106500 USD.
(Special reminder: This article is for readers' reference only and is not intended as investment advice)