alt season delayed? The ETH/BTC ratio consolidates the market's cautious signal

The ETH/BTC ratio – a familiar measure to evaluate the relative strength of Ethereum against Bitcoin – has remained in a narrow accumulation zone since mid-May. This trend indicates that Ethereum continues to lag behind Bitcoin, despite its role as the leading altcoin in the market.

The prolonged tug-of-war not only reflects the cautious, even weakened, sentiment of investors towards ETH, but also indicates that the altcoin season – the time when altcoins make a strong breakout – is still widely delayed.

Altcoin season delayed as ETH continues to struggle

Data from the daily chart shows that the ETH/BTC ratio has been maintained within a narrow trading range since May 13, with resistance around the 0.026 mark and support at 0.023.

Daily ETH/BTC Chart | Source: TradingViewThis ratio reflects the relative growth levels between Ethereum and Bitcoin, thereby helping to determine which asset is leading the upward trend. In the past, the steady improvement of ETH/BTC often served as an early signal for the start of altcoin season – a period when capital tends to flow out of Bitcoin into alternative assets, with Ethereum being the leading name.

However, the current sideways state indicates that cautious sentiment still prevails, as investors continue to prioritize holding BTC in the context of increasing geopolitical risks.

This development is noteworthy, as it raises concerns that the altcoin season – which the community has been anticipating for some time – may continue to be delayed.

In a post on June 18 on the X platform, analyst Crypto Fella noted that the ETH/BTC exchange rate chart is currently the "most important chart to watch" for anyone hoping for the return of the altcoin season.

The shared chart shows that this currency pair is moving around the threshold of 0.024 — a zone that marked the cycle's bottom in 2019 and 2020. At that time, ETH experienced a strong recovery against Bitcoin after a long period of weakness. However, Crypto Fella emphasizes that "we need to see clear signals of strength before a significant reversal can occur."

Accordingly, if ETH/BTC can firmly break through the key resistance level at 0.026, this will be an important indicator confirming the beginning of a broad recovery wave in the altcoin market.

! Weekly ETH/BTC Chart | Source: XNoai, data from the altcoin (Altcoin Season Index) Index continues to show that the market is still under the dominance of Bitcoin. By definition, an "altcoin season" only really starts when at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins record outgrowth over BTC within three consecutive months.

Altcoin Season Index | Source: Blockchain CenterHowever, in the past 90 days, only a mere 25% of altcoins have met this criterion – a figure that clearly indicates the stagnation of the alternative asset group and suggests that the prospect of a true altcoin season still seems quite far away.

ETH is being held below the 20-day EMA

At the time of the article, Ethereum (ETH) is trading around the $2,521 mark, up slightly by 0.15% in the last 24 hours. On the daily time frame of the ETH/USD pair, the price is currently below the (EMA) 20-day exponential moving average — a signal indicating that the bears are still in control, especially in the context of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

ETH/USDT Daily Chart | Source: TradingViewThe 20-day EMA reflects the average price of ETH over the last 20 trading sessions, with a heavier weighting towards more recent prices. When the price is below this threshold, it is often a sign of short-term selling pressure dominating the market.

If this weakening trend continues, ETH risks retreating to the support zone of $2,424. Conversely, in the event of increased buying pressure and the price surpassing the 20-day EMA, the recovery momentum could bring ETH back to the zone of $2,745.

SN_Nour