Bitcoin is consolidating and building a底, with the 105K platform becoming a key decisive point.

[Chart Source: AiCoin 15m Candlestick]

The upgrade of U.S. regulations is catalyzing market sentiment.

Recently, the U.S. Senate once again passed the procedural agenda motion for the "GENIUS Stablecoin Act" (supporting votes 66:32), opening an important opportunity for the issuance and regulatory framework of stablecoins, and striving for a clearer regulatory path for crypto assets. This policy push releases the signal that the "digital dollar" will be formally recognized by the state, providing long-term support for BTC.

Candlestick pattern: Pullback confirmation, building momentum upwards

From the chart, it can be seen that the recent high is around $108,952, and the low has retraced to $103,371. This range has formed a clear consolidation pattern.

After falling from the high on the 18th, it subsequently stabilized near the MA10/30, showing a rhythm of "pullback - bottoming - rise again", which conforms to a three-phase ascending structure.

Large Capital Flow Dynamics & CME Gap

The OBV (On-Balance Volume) is oscillating at a low level during the pullback, but it has not plummeted, indicating that institutional funds are still slowly entering.

The key point is the existence of a CME weekly settlement gap, with the gap range approximately between 104,200–105,500 USD: the upper gap has not yet been completely filled, and the market usually has an inertia to "fill the gap," which provides technical support for subsequent upward breakthroughs.

If the area continues to receive support, there is a possibility of further rallying towards 110,000–112,000 dollars or even higher.

Technical Indicator Analysis

MACD: After a peak value decline, a "death cross" has formed, but it still maintains a bullish structure above the zero axis, indicating short-term stabilization.

The RSI is hovering around the midline (50–55), with no obvious overbought or oversold conditions, indicating an increased possibility of consolidation, but does not rule out a quick upward surge after the accumulation of breakout strength.

After the J value of the KDJ indicator falls back, it rises again, signaling a rebound in the short to medium term.

Good news

The U.S. Senate on Tuesday passed the GENIUS Act with a result of 68 votes in favor and 30 against, marking the first comprehensive regulatory reform bill for cryptocurrencies in the United States. The bill, led by Republican Senator Bill Hagerty from Tennessee, will establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins pegged to the U.S. dollar, signifying an important breakthrough for the digital asset industry in the legislative arena. 18 Democratic senators joined the majority of Republicans in supporting the bill, which will now be submitted to the House of Representatives for further consideration.

The continuous layout of large institutional funds and the increase in ETF positions (BTC ETF has seen steady inflows recently), along with the clarification of stablecoin regulations, further enhance institutional confidence.

Comprehensive conclusions and market outlook

The range is dominant, and the upward trend is still intact

The support at the 103–104k area is solid upon retracement. After returning to the gap area, the bullish structure is clear. Following a breakout and if the MACD regains the golden cross, it may further challenge the 110–112k range. Funds are still flowing in, and the CME gap remains unfilled.

Under the long-short game, the capital line ( OBV ) indicates a state of accumulation. If the gap continues to pressurize support, the impact after the breakout will be strengthened, and a new high in the short term cannot be ruled out. The short-term is critical, and timing is key.

If in the next few days the support at 104–105k is confirmed, and MA10/30, RSI, KDJ confirm a strengthening trend, the bulls are likely to continue to gain strength; otherwise, we need to be alert to the risk of further downward adjustments as indicated by the death cross of technical indicators (the target could drop to around 102k). Policy support continues to be strengthened.

The stablecoin bill is approaching its final vote, and if officially passed, it will provide an unprecedented legal identity for crypto assets, boosting the entire market structure and is expected to become an important positive signal in the second half of the year.

Strategy suggestions (for reference only)

Written in the end

This round of BTC has stabilized after a pullback, with no signs of capital withdrawal; if the CME gap can be maintained and confirmed, BTC may once again break through 110k and could challenge 112,000–115,000 USD; if U.S. stablecoin regulations continue to advance, the second half of 2025 may welcome a background for an X2 or even X3 style explosion.

However, the short-term support level of 104–105k must be maintained. If this range is broken, the probability of a pullback to 102k or even 100k will increase—at that time, it may present a good opportunity for the next round of entry.