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Polymarket Traders Lower Odds Of U.S. Strike On Iran After Talks
HomeNews* Traders on decentralized platform Polymarket lowered the probability of U.S. military action against Iran following diplomatic developments.
The shift reflects a report suggesting possible discussions this week between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Talks would focus on the nuclear deal and potentially easing the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict. Despite this, some Polymarket users continue to advocate for military engagement, with one stating, “Trump should join the fray: his troops need the experience in postpostmodern warfare,” as seen on the Polymarket platform.
On Friday, Israel carried out coordinated airstrikes and drone attacks on several Iranian military and nuclear sites. Iran responded with retaliatory actions. These events caused an initial sell-off in cryptocurrency markets, with Bitcoin dropping to approximately $102,750 before recovering to $106,700 by the time of reporting. During the same period, futures tied to the S&P 500 index fell by 0.7%.
There have been no official statements from the Trump administration confirming the Axios report. However, in a post on Truth Social late Monday, Trump again said Iran should not have a nuclear weapon and called for the evacuation of Tehran.
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