Where might the peak of Bitcoin's current cycle be? Let's look at it through multiple valuation models.

This article, from an article written by Bitcoin Magazine Pro, uses a series of on-chain valuation models and cyclical timing tools to estimate Bitcoin's likely peak targets, collated, compiled and written by Vernacular Blockchain. (Synopsis: Singapore's Davis Commodities announces it will buy $12 million in Bitcoin: Tokenize sugar and rice oil to target the RWA market) (Background added: I tried 2 ways to invest in Bitcoin: one set of success, one set of fiasco, a valuable lesson for me) With Bitcoin showing unprecedented bullish momentum, an inevitable problem has emerged: the price of Bitcoin in this market cycle (BTC) How high can it actually rise? This article will explore a range of on-chain valuation models and cyclical timing tools to identify possible peak price targets for Bitcoin. While forecasts can never replace flexible data-based reactions, these analytical frameworks can help us better understand where the market is currently and where it might be headed in the future. Price Prediction Tools Let's start with the free price prediction tools offered by Bitcoin Magazine Pro, which bring together several historically accurate valuation models. While data-based reactions are often more effective than blindly predicting prices, studying these indicators can still provide a strong context for market behavior. When the overall economy, derivatives, and on-chain data start to send warning signs, it's usually a good time to take profits, whether or not a specific price target is reached. Nevertheless, exploring these valuation tools is instructive and can aid strategic decisions when combined with broader market analysis. Figure 1: Applying the Price Prediction Tool to Calculate Potential Cycle Top Key models include the following: Top Market Cap (Top Cap): Predict peak valuations by multiplying the historical average market cap by 35. The model accurately predicted the top of 2017, but failed to accurately predict the 2020-2021 cycle, which is expected to exceed $200,000, while the actual peak of Bitcoin is about $69,000. With the model now predicting more than $500,000, it feels increasingly unrealistic. Delta Vertex (Delta Top): Generate a more grounded forecast by subtracting the average market cap from the cost base ( based on all circulating BTC based on achieving market cap ). The model predicted a top of $80,000 to $100,000 in the last cycle. Terminal Price (Terminal Price): Calculated based on supply-adjusted coin age (Coin Days Destroyed), it is the closest model in history to each peak, including the $64,000 top in 2021. The current forecast is around $221,000, which could rise to $250,000 or more, and is considered the most credible prediction macro looking at the model on top of Bitcoin. More details about these indicators and their calculation logic can be found below the chart on the website. Peak Prediction Another powerful indicator is the MVRV ratio, which compares market capitalization with realised market capitalization, providing a window into investor psychology. The ratio usually peaked around 4 in the main cycle and is currently at 2.34, indicating that there is still significant upside. Historically, when MVRV approached 3.5 to 4, long-term holders began to realize significant gains, often marking cycle maturity. However, due to diminishing returns, we may not be able to reach a full 4 this cycle. Using a more conservative 3.5 estimate, we can start predicting more realistic peaks. Figure 2: MVRV Ratio View Forecast Cycle Still Has Further Growth to Reach Historical 4+ or Even More Conservative 3.5 Target Calculate target price Timing is just as important as valuation. By analyzing "BTC growth since cycle lows", we found that previous rounds of Bitcoin cycles peaked about 1060 days from the lows. We are currently in the current cycle of about 930 days. If this pattern continues, the peak may arrive in about 130 days. Historically, FOMO ( fear of missing out on )-driven price increases typically occurred at the end of the cycle, leading to a rapid rise in the proxy metric ( that achieves the price ) average cost basis for investors. For example, in the last 130 days of 2017, the realized price increased by 260%; There was a 130% increase in 2021. Assuming that the growth rate halves again due to diminishing returns, it may reach about $78,000 by October 18, a 65% increase from the current realized price of $47,000. Figure 3: Based on the peak velocity of previous cycles, the current cycle is far from over Combining the expected $78,000 achieved price and the conservative 3.5 MVRV target, we conclude that Bitcoin's potential price peak is $273,000. While this may seem ambitious, historical parabolic surges suggest that such movements can happen in a matter of weeks rather than months. Although the peak is expected to be more likely to be between $150,000 and $200,000, mathematical and on-chain evidence suggests that higher valuations are at least possible. It's worth noting that these models adjust dynamically, and forecasts could accelerate quickly and further if market frenzy intensifies at the end of the cycle. Figure 4: Predicting the Peak of the Cycle in Combination of the Expected Realization Price and the Possible MVRV Target Conclusion Predicting the exact peak of Bitcoin is inherently uncertain and has too many variables to fully consider. What we can do is build a probabilistic framework based on historical precedents and on-chain data. Tools such as MVRV ratios, terminal prices, and Delta vertices have proven their worth many times in predicting market tops. While the $273,000 goal may seem optimistic, it is rooted in historical patterns, current network behavior, and cyclical timing logic. Ultimately, the best strategy is to react based on data rather than fixed price levels. Use these tools to refine your investment assumptions, but remain flexible enough to profit in time when the broader ecosystem starts giving top signals. Related reports Solana founder criticized "$100 million ADA for bitcoin" is too stupid, Hoskinson responded after several days of silence Singapore's Davis Commodities announced that it would buy $12 million in bitcoin: tokenizing sugar and rice oil aimed at the RWA market I tried 2 ways to invest in Bitcoin: a set of successes, a set of fiasco, a valuable lesson for me "Where is the possible apex of the Bitcoin cycle?" This article was first published in BlockTempo's "Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Blockchain News Media".