Main support under threat: Will Bitcoin plummet to $82,000?

Bitcoin is currently hovering around the MVRV +1.0σ band at $102,044 – a support zone that has proven to be significant in the price history. If this level is breached, BTC could see a deep correction to the median MVRV at $82,570. This zone has often become a strong rebound point in previous pullbacks, making it an important boundary for the bulls.

However, many technical signals and on-chain data are leaning towards a negative trend, indicating that the upward momentum of BTC is showing signs of weakening. The market is currently facing a decisive test that could determine whether the current bullish cycle will continue or start to reset.

Source: Ali## Is a high NVT ratio a sign of an overheated market?

The network value to transaction ratio (NVT) has surged by 83.82%, reaching 56.81. This increasing trend indicates that the market capitalization of BTC is growing faster than the trading volume, a potential signal of overvaluation.

Historically, similar spikes in NVT coincide with local market peaks or short-term corrections. While the price remains above $104,000, on-chain activity has not kept pace with the increase, indicating a weakening of fundamental support.

Therefore, the rapid increase in NVT adds downward pressure and implies that Bitcoin may be valued beyond its current utility.

Source: CryptoQuant## C**'s scarcity of** Bitcoin is starting to lose its appeal?

The Stock-to-Flow ratio has decreased by 12.5%, currently standing at 795.160. This decline seems to challenge the long-standing scarcity narrative of BTC, which often supports long-term price increases.

The declining Stock-to-Flow value suggests that the perceived scarcity of BTC may no longer be sufficient to maintain high price levels. If investors start to question this core thesis, optimistic sentiment could quickly erode.

Therefore, if there is no cash flow coming in or new catalysts associated with the supply shock, Bitcoin may struggle to maintain its current level as demand weakens and the scarcity narrative loses its appeal.

Source: CryptoQuant## Long increases despite the wave of Short liquidations?

Short liquidations skyrocketed to $5.9 million, led by Bybit and Binance, signaling a wave of forced exits. On the other hand, Long positions are gradually being built up, totaling $1.18 million during the same period.

This model shows that the market is divided, with Short Sellers being squeezed while dip buyers participate early. However, early Long entry points may backfire if the price cannot regain higher support zones.

Therefore, increasing Long orders without confirmation from price action can further increase volatility. If BTC slips below 102,000 dollars, those Long positions could trigger a deeper sell-off.

Source: CoinGlass## Support level of 101,000 dollars is being held firm as momentum indicators weaken?

At the time of writing, BTC is still above an important upward trend line and the Fibonacci level of 0.786 near $101,437, both of which serve as confluence support.

However, the Stochastic RSI is weakening at levels 35.36 and 42.56, entering the oversold zone. Although these levels often indicate an impending recovery, the bears still control the short-term momentum.

Therefore, if buyers do not regain strength and push the price higher, Bitcoin may drop to deeper retracement levels such as $84,000 or $76,000.

The upcoming sessions are very important, with $101,000 being the last line of defense.

Source: TradingView## Bitcoin will drop to 82,000 dollars?

Bitcoin is at a critical moment as both on-chain data and technical indicators reflect increasing bearish pressure. The support level of 101,000 dollars remains the last stronghold of the bulls.

A successful defense can trigger a recovery, while failing to hold may cause the price to drop sharply to the median MVRV level of $82,570.

With NVT rising and Stock-to-Flow weakening, the next move will determine whether BTC stabilizes or faces a stronger correction in the coming days.

Minh Anh