After staying at home for a few days, I sorted through the travel photos and written records from the past two months. Coincidentally, there was a chaotic battle among JD, Taobao, and Meituan, and every day I took my phone with my child to grab huge discounts on takeout, eating while watching shows. It was really quite comfortable, and I realized that not going out to join the hustle and bustle during major holidays is definitely a good choice.

Since last year, it has become increasingly difficult to make money, with every industry experiencing internal competition. The competitive environment in domestic e-commerce cannot even be described as heated; whether in online shopping or local services, everyone is caught in a suicidal price war. Everyone knows they have to compete fiercely, to the point of ruining their peers... Is this what is called internal circulation? Fortunately, I decisively withdrew from most of my physical businesses last year; otherwise, this year would have been a year of burning alive.
There is no doubt that being a consumer in recent years has been very happy. Things that were once out of reach are now basically at rock-bottom prices, including houses, cars, and daily necessities like rice, oil, salt, soy sauce, vinegar, tea, and other living supplies and services. The prices are beautiful, not to mention... Just open your phone and scroll through, all major apps are filled with the buying hormones of buy buy buy. If you don't buy, you lose out; if you buy, you won't be fooled. Even if you have no money, they can still provide you with loans. The national economy needs your contribution...
With things having turned out this way, are there any sectors with rising prices? It seems there are; as long as you visit a hospital or go to a commercial K, the consumption levels for physiological and psychological issues can still maintain steady growth in prices. Many financial bloggers and experts analyze that the current economic trend is the growing pains brought about by industrial structure transformation, coupled with the complexities of tariff wars, trade wars, and ideological battles, which are destined to face risks and challenges in the near future.
From the perspective of ordinary people, the current socio-economic phenomenon is unfriendly to most young people, with a variety of consumption traps and slow-growing income rewards, which are easy to get lost and confused. To tell the truth, if I had just come out of society to work hard, I would have a sense of powerlessness.
The reason for discussing this topic is that I saw comments from young friends in the comment section, expressing that we, as older investors, hold large amounts of capital and pursue stable growth of our funds. However, they, being young with less capital, hope to take risks to earn wealth that can change their lives. In simpler terms, they want to make some quick money and do it quickly.
Indeed, this logic is not problematic and cannot be said to be completely wrong. But first, you need to understand how high the risks are in the cryptocurrency world; it is akin to a leveraged big A, appearing to be value investing but actually full of traps. It seems like there is freedom to enter and exit, but in reality, there are many scams. After a full cycle, only one out of ten can successfully pocket their money. Secondly, you need to understand your own limits; listening too much to stories of survivor bias can easily lead to brainwashing. After one or two successful profits, one may mistakenly believe they are the chosen one, ultimately not escaping the outcome of being educated by the market.
In fact, looking back at the past eight years in the industry, those who have truly made big money are mostly players who adhere to long-termism and possess high cognitive abilities and self-control, regardless of the size of their capital or whether it's a bull or bear market... Immersing oneself in the game is the prerequisite for playing it well, and the three key factors to their greatest success are: 1. A clear and defined investment target and capital planning, with goals and faith to persist. 2. Knowing how to find reasonable entry and exit times. 3. A suitable operating method and event interpretation ability. In simple terms, to make money, you have to get it right.
The financial market is actually a very strange circle. If we compare cryptocurrencies to commodities, this is probably the only place where the more a commodity is discounted, the less you dare to buy it, and the more its price rises, the more you want to chase after it. Of course, there may also be things like houses and luxury goods. This is the anti-human nature of investment. Most ordinary people's financial perspectives are more inclined to spend time researching trivial expenses in life and tend to waste time on various apps doing tasks and grabbing red envelopes. When it comes to significant life expenditures or high-value investments, they often make decisions based on emotions.
This is not an isolated phenomenon; many people around me are like this. A high level of education does not necessarily mean a high financial intelligence, and a low level of education does not mean one cannot make a lot of money in this field. If you are currently experiencing losses, don't complain about the market downturn, and you don't need to question whether the bull market has ended. If you didn't make money last year, even if BTC breaks new highs this year, you are very likely to also not make money this year. The problem is not with the market; it's with skills and understanding. The market cannot be accurately predicted by anyone, but your own operations and decisions can be completely controlled by yourself. Especially in the current crypto space, where there are still quite a few tracks available, even just simply doing on-chain staking and financial management can already outperform 50% of the industries in the real world.
Let's talk about the market, it's been a while. After the May Day holiday, most cryptocurrencies surged and then plummeted, seemingly needing to oscillate in a high range. In fact, the market during this year's May Day is quite similar to the same period last year, also experiencing significant oscillation and adjustment. Although this period has been tough, there is still a possibility of a pullback to build a base. However, looking beyond the current trend, the second quarter to the second half of the year should mark the beginning of a new cycle. The biggest negative news in the first half of the year has already been released, unless there is a particularly special black swan event, the market should have a clear phased direction after tonight's Federal Reserve meeting.
Is the bull market still on? Personally, I believe it is. I still trust in the bull-bear cycle of this halving period, combined with two to three interest rate cuts and a series of external factors like the U.S. Strategic Reserve. It is highly probable that BTC will hit a new high within this year. This morning's rise mainly came from news of further easing of tariffs. Two big figures will send representatives to negotiate tariffs this week. After all the back and forth, high tariffs are not good for anyone, and sitting down to negotiate is just a matter of time. Crisis is also an opportunity, and there will always be solutions. At least the market trend this morning indirectly proves that big capital holds an optimistic attitude toward this news.
But when will the wealth effect of the crypto copycat season come? We must be patient, wait for new liquidity, wait for new narratives. We still have to believe in cycles; there is no market that remains low forever, nor one that is always at a peak. Cycles will always rise and fall. Through the comments section, I can feel that many friends are feeling despair and disappointment about the market recently. But the start of a rally, hasn't it always emerged suddenly with a big bullish candle in such situations? A bull market surge, simply understood, usually lasts only two to three weeks to a month and a half. Different cryptocurrencies will have different time cycles. The market makers have thoroughly researched the psychology of us little retail investors. Snatching food from the tiger's mouth, both sides want to make big money; it's merely a bet on who has more patience.
In March, when prices were sluggish, I browsed many videos and articles about the high price predictions for BTC and mainstream altcoins in 2025. I also paid for AI calculations on some websites, and coincidentally, my phone saved some screenshots, so I'll share them for everyone to see. Of course, this is just a prediction; I don't understand what database and formulas the AI used to make these predictions. I'm purely trying to encourage everyone, and this is not an investment suggestion, so please refer to it cautiously. #BTC重返97k#