Bitcoin hits the $100,000 mark, with ETF as the core driving force.

1. Macroeconomic risk mitigation, market sentiment warming up

As signs of easing in the US-China trade frictions appear, market risk appetite has significantly rebounded. US President Trump recently sent positive signals, suggesting a willingness to restart negotiations with China, and this shift in attitude has alleviated investors' concerns about an escalation of the "tariff war." Although it will take time to fully repair relations between the two countries, the short-term policy adjustments have created a favorable environment for risk assets. Last week, Bitcoin surged rapidly from $85,000 to $95,000, while safe-haven assets like gold saw a pullback.

This week, the market's focus has shifted to U.S. economic data, including non-farm payrolls, GDP, and PCE inflation indicators. If the data is weak, it may strengthen expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June, further benefiting risk assets. However, caution is needed regarding the potential impact of the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on global liquidity.

2. Bitcoin breaks through $95,000, ETF funds become key support

Bitcoin surged past $95,000 last week, reaching a six-week high, but then faced resistance and fell back to $94,861, with a 24-hour increase of 1.44%. This round of increase is closely related to the inflow of funds into spot ETFs: On April 22, the inflow reached $912 million in a single day, which is 500 times the average for 2025, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) contributing over $600 million.

Market Dynamics Analysis:

Institution-led buying: ETFs continue to absorb Bitcoin supply, creating strong support. Currently, the total holdings of 11 U.S. Bitcoin ETFs exceed 580,000 coins, valued at over $54 billion, making them the main "marginal buyers."

Liquidation Wave and Long-Short Battle: Over the past 24 hours, more than 110,000 people have been liquidated, with an amount reaching $275 million, and long positions accounting for 62%. Although the funding rate for shorts remains negative, selling pressure at highs is quickly absorbed by buying, showing market resilience.

Policy benefits catalyzed: Arizona in the United States has passed a bill allowing 10% of public funds to be invested in Bitcoin, becoming the first state to adopt cryptocurrency as a strategic reserve. Several other states and the federal government are also following suit, promoting optimistic expectations for long-term demand in the market.

3. Technical Analysis: Short-term volatility intensifies, key resistance levels emerge.

Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $93,200 (the cost line for short-term holders), and this price watershed determines whether market sentiment shifts to bullish. If it stabilizes at this level, the profit-loss ratio for short-term holders will break above 1.0, which may trigger a spread of FOMO sentiment. However, the upper level of $96,000 corresponds to the cost line for holders with positions of 3-6 months, so selling pressure must still be monitored.

Indicator signal:

RSI and MACD: The daily RSI has fallen to the neutral zone, and the 4-hour RSI has exited the overbought condition, indicating a cooling market enthusiasm. The MACD shows a short-term bullish trend, but a breakout above resistance is needed for confirmation.

CME futures gap: The unfilled gap below coexists with the new gap above, and price fluctuations may intensify. Historical experience shows a high probability of gap filling.

IV. Future Outlook: The $100,000 Battle and Potential Risks

The market generally believes that it is only a matter of time before Bitcoin breaks through $100,000. Standard Chartered Bank predicts that driven by institutional fund inflows and a weak dollar, it could rise to $120,000 in the second quarter, with a year-end target price of $200,000. However, potential risks cannot be ignored:

ETF capital fluctuations: If inflows slow down, buying support may weaken.

Geopolitical risks: If US-China negotiations become stagnant again, it may trigger a rise in risk-averse sentiment.

Leverage liquidation pressure: High leverage positions are prone to triggering a chain liquidation under price fluctuations.

Summary: The current Bitcoin market exhibits characteristics of "institutionalization," with ETF funds becoming the core driving force behind prices. Although there are technical resistances and macro uncertainties in the short term, the bullish logic remains unchanged in the medium to long term. Investors should pay attention to economic data and ETF fund flows this week to seize opportunities amidst volatility.