July financial data preview: credit may fall seasonally, social financing growth rate may rebound slightly

On August 8th, Jinshi Data reported that July, as the traditional 'small month' for credit issuance, is expected to experience a seasonal decline in new loans. Under the low base effect, the growth rate of social financing stock is expected to rebound. In July of last year, RMB loans increased by 345.9 billion yuan, and the scale of social financing increased by 528.2 billion yuan. Guotai Junan Securities predicts that in July, the newly added RMB loans will be around 200-300 billion yuan, with a growth rate of around 8.7%. At present, the main contradiction that restricts credit expansion is still the insufficient effective financing demand. The pressure of 'quantity contraction, price reduction, and risk increase' for loans is rising, making it difficult for credit activities to seek 'quantity and price balance'. From a structural point of view, the issuance of corporate loans is relatively stable, and the differentiation of industry investment continues. The quasi-fiscal forces need to be strengthened. The demand for retail loans is weak, and the trend of 'quantity contraction and price reduction' may still be present. The 'zero interest rate' trend of bill reposting has reemerged, and the proportion of bills in credit and social financing has increased. Industrial Securities Research predicts that the growth rate of social financing in July may have a slight rebound.