Is the 4-Year Cycle of Bitcoin Breaking Down? Or Is It Just Evolving?

The cryptocurrency market has long operated in 4-year cycles, linked to Bitcoin halving events, interest rate trends, and major crashes in the industry. However, many experts now believe that old models are gradually losing their effectiveness, and new forces are reshaping the entire market. Bitcoin Is Still In The Growth Cycle Bitcoin has recently surpassed a new historical peak, reaching $123,000, continuing its growth cycle since the market bottom. Historically, Bitcoin cycles last about 1,070 days from bottom to peak. With this timeframe, the peak of the current cycle could occur around October 20, 2025 – indicating that the current cycle is not yet over and the upward momentum may continue for more than 2 months. Long-term momentum is dominating the 4-year cycle According to Mr. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, the 4-year cycle is gradually becoming outdated. He believes that factors such as Bitcoin halving are having less and less impact, interest rates are no longer a barrier as they were before, and clear regulatory frameworks have helped eliminate the risk of major crashes in the industry. "The acceptance of the ETF is just the beginning; this is a trend that will last from 5 to 10 years," he said. Hougan also emphasized that institutional money is starting to flow into the market, with pension funds, universities, and national financial platforms beginning to consider investing in cryptocurrencies. Giants like JP Morgan and Standard Chartered have been and are developing crypto-related products. According to him, this is a sign that long-term positive forces will outweigh traditional cyclical patterns, and 2026 could be a stellar year for the crypto market. The Biggest Risk: Companies Holding Bitcoin However, Mr. Hougan also warned of a new cyclical risk: the increase of publicly listed companies holding Bitcoin. In the past month, as many as 22 public companies have added Bitcoin to their balance sheets, bringing the total to 160 companies. In agreement, the CEO of CryptoQuant – Mr. Ki Young Ju – also stated that the old cycle of Bitcoin has ended. According to him, traditional indicators such as whale buying activity or the FOMO frenzy from retail investors are no longer accurate. Instead, we are witnessing the shift of Bitcoin from old whales to new long-term holders, no longer dependent on retail cash flow as before. Those Who Still Believe in the 4-Year Cycle Despite this, many experts believe that the 4-year cycle is still in effect – albeit weaker. Mr. Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity asserts that Bitcoin is still closely following this cycle, especially when considering the recent price peaks. Renowned ETF analyst James Seyffart also agrees that the 4-year cycle still exists, but major downturns may only be minor corrections due to the steady influx of funds from institutions. Currently, Bitcoin has entered the 975th day of the current cycle – nearing the 1,060-day mark of previous cycles before reaching a peak. This reinforces the possibility that the cycle peak will occur around October 2025. Some on-chain indicators also suggest the potential for a final parabolic surge, pushing the price of BTC up to $250,000. Pi Cycle Top Indicator Is Accelerating A prominent technical indicator is the Pi Cycle Top, which is also changing rapidly. Previously, this indicator predicted that the cycle peak would occur in January 2027, but with the current rate of increase, the crossing point has been adjusted to earlier in late 2026, and it could even happen in 2025 if the upward momentum continues. Conclusion: The Cycle is Transforming, Not Breaking Down Despite mixed opinions, it is clear that the cryptocurrency market is entering a new phase, where traditional cycles are gradually being replaced by long-term forces from institutions, technology, and regulatory frameworks. However, the laws of supply and demand, market psychology, and timing still play a certain role, indicating that the 4-year cycle may not completely disappear but is evolving to fit a more mature market.