CryptoQuant warns that BTC will fall by $92,000, and analysts' opinions are divided.

Gate News bot News: According to CoinDesk, this week, three new reports released by CryptoQuant, Glassnode and trading firm Flowdesk all point to the same superficial conditions: low volatility, tight price action, and sluggish on-chain activity. In addition, retail participation has declined, while institutional investors, from ETFs to whales, are shaping the structure of money flows.

But CryptoQuant has issued the most urgent warning. In a report on June 19, CryptoQuant pointed out that if demand continues to deteriorate, BTC may soon return to the support level of $92,000, or even drop to $81,000.

Spot demand continues to grow, but remains well below trend levels. Since April, ETF inflows have decreased by over 60%, while Whale holdings have been cut in half. Short-term holders are typically newer market participants, and have sold about 800,000 Bitcoins since late May.

Their demand momentum indicator (used to track the directional buying strength of major groups) currently shows -2 million BTC, the lowest value in the CryptoQuant dataset.

However, Glassnode has seen the same signals and reached a less alarming conclusion. In its weekly on-chain update, the company acknowledged that the Bitcoin blockchain is "quiet", which means the number of transactions has decreased, fees are low, and miner revenue is sluggish.

This indicates that this may not be a weakness, but rather a reflection of the evolution of the network. The on-chain settlement volume remains high, but is primarily concentrated in large transactions, suggesting that the chain is increasingly being used by institutions and Whales. Glassnode points out that the derivatives market is now much larger than on-chain activity, with futures and options trading volumes typically ranging from 7 to 16 times that of spot.

This transformation has brought about more complex hedging, better collateral practices, and a more mature (though less frenzied) market structure. The perspective of the market maker and trading firm Flowdesk, based in France, lies somewhere in between. While noting a decrease in altcoin traffic and flat market-making volume, its update on June 19 described the market as "winding" rather than breaking.

Flowdesk emphasized the surge in tokenized assets, such as gold-backed XAUT (trading volume increased by 56%), the growth of stablecoins, and the increase in RWA activities. For them, low Fluctuation may just be the calm before a directional breakthrough and not necessarily downward.

But in the end, it seems that no one can grasp a reliable map for future developments. Even the bettors on Polymarket are uncertain, as the likelihood of BTC falling to $90,000 or rising to $115,000 to $120,000 is almost equal.