Future Outlook of the Bitcoin Ecosystem: Who Will Lead the Next Wave?

The current market is full of expectations for Bitcoin to break through the $70,000 barrier. Many investors believe that if Bitcoin can break through and stabilize at this price point, the long-awaited bull market will officially begin.

In this optimistic sentiment, important assets in the Bitcoin ecosystem have risen sharply. In the past week, $ORDI had a maximum increase of 25%, and $SATS had a maximum increase of 15%.

The rune market is exceptionally lively. Represented by the new cat "Gizmo", the rune GIZMO•IMAGINARY•KITTEN soared after its minting, with its market value reaching nearly 20 million USD. Although the creator denied any association with the rune, the market enthusiasm remains high.

The popularity of GIZMO•IMAGINARY•KITTEN has driven the rise of two other "Golden Dog" runes: KODA•FLUFFINGTON and POOKA•CANNOT•BE•STOPPED. They both quickly surpassed a market value of 1 million dollars, reaching peaks of nearly 4 million and 3 million dollars respectively.

The leading assets in the Rune market have also seen a significant increase. PUPS•WORLD•PEACE and BILLION•DOLLAR•CAT have increased nearly 9 times since the end of September, while DOG•GO•TO•THE•MOON has seen a maximum increase of 1 time. There are rumors that a certain trading platform is conducting internal security audits and compliance assessments on the Rune, which makes one ponder the recent rise of the Rune.

If a bull market is about to begin, what does the outlook for the Bitcoin ecosystem look like from the current perspective?

On the Eve of Great Change: Conservative or Open?

The revival of OP_CAT on the Bitcoin mainnet is of great significance. Regarding the vision of "implementing smart contracts on the Bitcoin mainnet", the issue at hand is no longer whether it can be done, but rather the choice of whether it should be done.

Last year's popularity of the Ordinals protocol contributed significantly to the openness of the Bitcoin ecosystem, but it only opened a small gap. The consensus of the Ordinals protocol is just a small subset of the Bitcoin consensus, which results in BRC-20, Runes, and other FT protocols on Bitcoin still having shortcomings in user experience compared to other chains.

If the BIP-347 proposal "OP_CAT in Tapscript" is approved, and the Bitcoin mainnet ultimately completes the soft fork, it will mean a significant change in Bitcoin consensus, shifting from conservative to open, and the narrative ceiling of Bitcoin will be opened again.

However, there is a great deal of uncertainty regarding whether OP_CAT can be revived in this bull market. Currently, the main targets attempting to bet on the revival of OP_CAT are Quantum Cats and the CAT20 protocol.

If OP_CAT cannot be revived, the rune may continue to hold the position of the most influential FT protocol in the Bitcoin ecosystem.

The rune market is facing more challenges.

Runes only truly become FT after being listed on an exchange. Before this, the nature of runes is not much different from NFTs, and their market value fluctuates significantly. The true market value of runes needs to be tested through the liquidity of the exchange.

In addition to the exchange, the Rune Swap product has also appeared on the Bitcoin mainnet. A certain NFT trading platform is about to launch the Rune Swap feature, which is expected to improve the on-chain liquidity of Runes.

In terms of the richness of cryptocurrencies, RUNE has already acquired a "Cult coin" similar to PUPS•WORLD•PEACE, but the trending topics are still relatively thin, requiring more participants to enrich the content and the Cult coin ecosystem.

In contrast, the prospects of BRC-20 are currently rather bleak, with $ORDI, $SATS, and $PIZZA being almost the entirety of BRC-20.

NFT blue chip tier is stabilizing, and the uniqueness of the narrative still needs to be explored.

NodeMonkes, Bitcoin Puppets, OMB, Quantum Cats, Pizza Ninjas and other projects have established strong blue-chip status. Bitcoin Shrooms, on the other hand, maintains a high floor price due to its scarcity.

In the field of pure art NFTs, the art on Bitcoin needs to seek breakthroughs in themes, such as conceptual art or AI art that combines the cultural attributes of Bitcoin. The CENTS series is currently one of the most unique art projects on Bitcoin, creating a distinctive "value entanglement".

The DMT concept is also a unique artistic narrative of Bitcoin that is worth paying attention to. Currently, apart from Natcats, the DMT concept projects have not attracted enough market attention.

Conclusion

Whether OP_CAT can be revived in this bull market will determine the development direction of the Bitcoin ecosystem. If OP_CAT fails to revive, the Lightning Network, BitVM, and other directions may gain more attention.

The Bitcoin ecosystem is currently the only field in the crypto market that can effectively run the "technical narrative". Regardless, the Bitcoin ecosystem is bound to become one of the important narratives in this bull market, standing out among various ecosystems.