Crypto Market Macro Research Report: Global Liquidity Easing and Technological Innovation Drive Bitcoin to New Highs

I. Macroeconomic Background: Global Policy Easing and Market Sentiment Shift

In May 2025, a certain country's central bank implemented a "double reduction" policy, lowering the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and reducing the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points to 1.4%. This policy not only has a profound impact on the traditional financial market but also brings potential opportunities for the crypto market and the Web3 ecosystem. Meanwhile, the economic and trade relations among major global economies are warming up, further driving the market's risk appetite.

1.1 The global economic recovery stimulates market sentiment.

The improvement of trade relations between major economies has become the focus of global market attention. In recent years, the global economy has faced uncertainty due to trade frictions and tariff policies, leading to a decline in investor risk appetite. With monetary policy shifting towards easing, market expectations for improved trade relations have risen, and the prices of risk assets have generally increased, especially in the crypto market. Under the policy backdrop, market liquidity has been released, and enthusiasm for investing in traditional assets and crypto assets is high. The rise of risk assets such as Bitcoin reflects a shift in market sentiment.

1.2 Global Liquidity Easing

The monetary policy easing of major economies has significant global influence. By lowering reserve requirements and interest rates, ample liquidity is injected into the market. This monetary easing not only has a positive effect on the domestic economy but may also trigger changes in global capital flows. Global investors respond positively to this policy. As liquidity is significantly released, global capital actively seeks new investment channels. Against this backdrop, traditional asset markets and crypto market investors show a significant increase in demand for cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. As "digital gold", Bitcoin's value is highlighted in the context of global monetary easing, becoming an important tool to combat inflation and currency devaluation.

1.3 Federal Reserve Policy and Interest Rate Cut Expectations

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy trends have also become a focal point for the market. Recent economic data indicates that while the US economy is still expanding, high inflation and high unemployment pressures pose challenges for monetary policy. Expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have weakened, and the market believes that the current interest rate policy will be maintained in the short term. This has directly led to a stronger US dollar, having a profound impact on global capital flows. Despite the strength of the dollar, demand for crypto assets has not significantly declined, with "digital gold" gaining renewed popularity as a safe-haven asset. Investors are seeking stable value storage tools amid policy uncertainty, thus increasing the demand for Bitcoin.

1.4 Market Sentiment Shift and Investment Strategies

Overall, the global policy resonance and shift in market sentiment will have a profound impact on global capital markets, especially the crypto market. Global risk appetite has significantly increased, and investor sentiment has turned positive, particularly with a surge in demand for cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin prices are nearing historical highs, indicating strong market recognition. However, investors still need to approach potential risks with caution. With changes in global monetary policy, the uncertainty of the dollar's trajectory and Federal Reserve policies may bring volatility to the crypto market. Investors should maintain flexible strategies, adopting a "core + satellite" portfolio, with Bitcoin as the foundational allocation, while focusing on Web3 projects with practical application scenarios.

2. Bitcoin Market Dynamics: Price Hits New Highs

Bitcoin is showing strong growth in 2025, with prices repeatedly approaching historical highs, becoming one of the most notable assets of the year. The forces driving the increase include the macro policy background, internal industry evolution, and emotional expectation games. Bitcoin has once again become the focus of global capital, with price trends reflecting the release of safe-haven demand, institutional recognition, influx of institutions, and valuation reconstruction.

The biggest characteristic of this round of rise is that institutional investors have become the dominant force. Large asset management institutions are positioning themselves in Bitcoin ETFs, promoting its move towards institutional allocation. The financial products of crypto assets in places like Hong Kong and Dubai are becoming increasingly rich, allowing Bitcoin to enter more capital pools in a compliant manner. The inclusion of institutional funds has enhanced market depth and stability, reducing volatility driven purely by emotions.

The logic of supply-side scarcity is also amplifying Bitcoin's value anchoring ability. The halving in April 2024 will reduce the block reward to 3.125 coins, significantly compressing new supply. The inflation rate of Bitcoin has dropped to below 1%, reinforcing the "deflationary currency" narrative. On the demand side, rapid growth is driven by factors such as the listing of ETFs and increased hedging. The asymmetric supply-demand structure constitutes the fundamental support for price increases.

However, the approach of Bitcoin to new highs is accompanied by severe emotional fluctuations and technical adjustments. Factors such as whale accounts trading frequently and retail investors experiencing "fear of heights" have triggered a phase correction. The market structure is transitioning from early believers to mainstream users. Media promotion has created a "FOMO effect", but it also brings about "bubble expectations", and the market has entered a stage of heated activity and risk gaming.

Overall, the new all-time high of Bitcoin represents its leap in status within the global capital system. Against the backdrop of de-dollarization, a resurgence of risk-averse sentiment, and institutional capital entering the market, Bitcoin has become a strategic asset. Although there are short-term adjustment risks, in the medium to long term, this round of increase is the starting point of a new consensus cycle. Investors need to find a balance between enthusiasm and calm, understanding that Bitcoin is not just about price, but also a resonance of faith, institutions, and the times.

3. Web3 Ecosystem Development: Dual Drivers of Policy and Technology

The Web3 ecosystem is entering a new development cycle, gradually evolving into an underlying architecture aimed at global digital governance, cross-border collaboration, and the value internet. Three major forces—policy guidance, technological innovation, and application expansion—are driving Web3 towards large-scale implementation.

1. Policy Support

The policy attitude of the United States in the field of cryptocurrency and Web3 is shifting from "regulatory suppression" to "strategic acceptance." A certain state has passed the "Bitcoin Reserve Act," requiring the state government to hold a portion of its financial reserves in the form of Bitcoin. This marks Bitcoin being regarded in certain regions as a "digital gold" with long-term value storage capability, providing a pilot template for other governments.

Multiple states are in the early stages of "policy competition," promoting legislation on encryption mining, on-chain finance, and smart contract compliance. At the federal level, a unified regulatory framework is being pushed forward to clarify issues such as asset issuance and exchange registration. These dynamics strengthen the market's long-term institutional confidence in the Web3 ecosystem.

From an international perspective, the U.S. shift has an "spillover effect". Other countries or regions are beginning to reevaluate the compliance mechanisms for stablecoins, accelerating the promotion of Web3 "regulatory sandboxes", driving the flow of Web3 capital and ecological collaboration on a global scale.

2. Technical Progress

Modular blockchains and infrastructure technologies such as zero-knowledge proofs have entered a practical stage, enhancing the performance, composability, and privacy protection capabilities of the Web3 network. Modular blockchains separate execution, settlement, and data availability, providing "on-demand customized" infrastructure for on-chain applications. Zero-knowledge proof technology endows Web3 with dual capabilities of "computation + privacy," with ZK-rollups entering a large-scale deployment phase as a core Layer 2 solution.

The protocol for the integration of AI and Web3 is taking shape, allowing the training, invocation, and verification processes of AI models to be conducted on-chain, enabling "on-chain intelligence" to possess self-evolution capabilities. These new technologies are breaking through the original bottlenecks of the Web3 system, making on-chain applications potentially competitive with Web2 experiences.

3. Application Scenario Expansion

Web3 application scenarios continue to expand. In the field of cross-border payments, stablecoin settlements help small and medium-sized enterprises avoid issues of exchange rate fluctuations and the low efficiency of traditional financial transfers. Digital identity authentication has become an important breakthrough, addressing the fundamental questions of "who is the user" and "who owns the data." On-chain social networking, gaming, and citizen voting scenarios also face explosive opportunities due to the maturity of the DID system.

The driving force behind Web3 applications comes from three aspects: the "chain reform" upgrade demand of traditional industries, the evolution of encryption native demands (such as the new gameplay from DeFi 1.0 to Restaking), and the cultural resonance of global youth for free collaboration and value sovereignty. These forces together constitute the long-term development momentum of the Web3 ecosystem.

4. Risk Factors and Investment Strategies

Although the Web3 ecosystem and the Bitcoin market are showing strong growth, investors still need to pay attention to potential risks. In the current situation where the tug-of-war between long and short forces continues to escalate and the interaction between policies and the market is complex, it is particularly crucial to develop rational and forward-looking investment strategies.

The main risk factors include:

1. The direction of global interest rate policies is uncertain. Once inflation rises again or geopolitical conflicts escalate, it may force central banks to turn hawkish, impacting the valuation of risk assets.

2. Regulatory disruptions remain a significant external variable. Before the new regulatory framework is officially implemented, there exists a gray area in law enforcement standards. In extreme cases, there may be "selective enforcement" against core infrastructures such as DeFi and stablecoins.

3. Technical risks cannot be ignored. New technologies such as zero-knowledge proofs, Layer 2 bridging, etc. still face issues such as attacks and code vulnerabilities.

4. Structural differentiation in the market may lead to periodic bubbles. Hot assets emerge one after another, and some projects may be overvalued.

Investment strategy advice:

• For those with a lower risk appetite: allocate Bitcoin for the long term and gradually increase positions during pullbacks.

• Growth seekers: Focus on projects in the infrastructure sector with practical applications and active developer ecosystems, such as Layer2, ZK, modular chains, etc.

• Operating strategy: Use methods such as phased building of positions, rolling adjustments, and setting take profit and stop loss for dynamic management.

• Project Selection: Strengthen the consideration of "policy sensitivity" and prioritize the layout of emerging projects in regions with clear compliance trends.

Overall, the crypto market is at a cyclical turning point in 2025. Only by understanding structural trends and building a cross-cycle allocation logic can one move steadily forward amid future market fluctuations and innovations.

V. Conclusion

In the first half of 2025, the crypto market will enter a new round of structural bull cycle driven by global policy easing, warming liquidity, and technological innovation. Bitcoin prices are nearing historical highs, and Web3 ecosystem application scenarios are further expanding. However, policy changes, regulatory uncertainties, market speculation, and technological risks still need to be monitored.

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, investors should maintain calm judgment amidst structural prosperity, following a strategy that combines value-driven, policy-oriented, and safety baseline logic to seize the core dividends of the next stage.