The Fed's interest rate cut timing becomes the market focus, Crypto Assets迎来新投资机遇

Recently, U.S. economic data has sparked controversy in the market regarding the number of interest rate cuts. Although the May CPI data shows that inflation continues to cool, with core CPI increasing by 3.4% year-on-year, a three-year low, the non-farm payroll data was strong, with 272,000 new jobs added in May, far exceeding expectations. This divergence in economic indicators has made it difficult for the market to reach a consensus on the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts.

Currently, the FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of the first rate cut in September is only 56.3%. The Fed's dot plot also reflects that there is a disagreement among committee members regarding the number of rate cuts, with 11 members expecting a maximum of 1 cut this year, while 8 members believe that 2 cuts are possible. Therefore, the specific arrangements for rate cuts still need to be adjusted based on subsequent economic data.

From the market performance perspective, US Treasury yields have shown a downward trend recently, and gold prices are consolidating at high levels, which seems to suggest that the risk appetite for funds is increasing. The latest economic data also indicate that the US economy is improving, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 51.7 and the GDP growth rate for the second quarter expected to reach 3.0%. Overall, the US economy is developing in a positive direction.

This month, the AI frenzy propelled Nvidia's market value to briefly surpass that of Microsoft and Apple, making it the highest-valued company in the world. However, the US stock market is experiencing significant divergence, with the difference between the return of the S&P 500 index and breadth indicators hitting a 30-year high, reflecting a high concentration of funds in a few large-cap stocks. This phenomenon increases the market's vulnerability, and institutional clustering may exacerbate systemic risks in the future.

The crypto assets market has seen an unwarranted decline this month, with Bitcoin briefly dropping below $58,500 and Ethereum hitting a low of $3,240. Despite a favorable macro environment and net inflows into the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, concentrated sell-offs by veteran players and miners have become the main reason for the decline. This short-term volatility provides new entry opportunities for investors.

It is noteworthy that the crypto market is迎来新的发展机遇. The Ethereum spot ETF is expected to be approved in early July, and VanEck has applied to launch a Solana ETF. The continuous enrichment of these financial instruments will accelerate the entry of crypto assets into the mainstream investment field, with the potential to bring in considerable incremental capital.

Despite increased market volatility in the short term, Crypto Assets are being adopted by traditional finance at an unexpectedly rapid pace. With the launch of related ETFs and the participation of institutional investors, the crypto market is expected to play a more significant role in diversified portfolios, providing investors with new growth opportunities.