The Truth About Liquidity: A Study on the Coin Listing Effect in Exchanges in 2024

1. Introduction to Research

1.1 Research Background

Since the beginning of this year, the market has sparked widespread discussions about VC tokens with high fully diluted valuations ( FDV ) but low circulating market caps ( MC ). With the new tokens issued in 2024, the MC/FDV ratio has dropped to its lowest level in the past three years, indicating that a large number of tokens will be unlocked and enter the market in the future. Although the initial circulation is low, the market may experience a short-term price increase due to rising demand, but this increase lacks sustainability. Once a large number of tokens are unlocked and enter the market, the risk of oversupply intensifies, and investors begin to worry that this market structure may not provide lasting support for price increases.

As a result, many investors' interests have begun to shift from these VC coins to Meme coins. The characteristics of Meme coins include that most tokens are fully unlocked at TGE, resulting in a higher circulation rate and no sell-off pressure from future unlocks. This structure reduces the supply pressure in the market, giving investors more confidence. Many Meme coins have an MC/FDV ratio close to 1 at the time of issuance, meaning holders will not face dilution due to further issuance of tokens, providing a relatively stable market environment. As awareness of the risks associated with large-scale token unlocks deepens, investors' interests have gradually shifted towards these coins with higher liquidity and lower inflation rates, even though these tokens may lack practical application scenarios.

In the current market landscape, investors are required to be more cautious in selecting tokens. However, when investors choose tokens, they often find it difficult to independently assess the value and potential of each project. At this point, the screening mechanism of the exchange becomes crucial. As the "gatekeeper" that directly pushes token assets to users, centralized exchanges not only help verify the compliance and market potential of tokens, but also play a role in filtering high-quality projects. Although there is another voice in the market that suggests on-chain transactions will surpass CEX transactions, we believe that the market share of centralized exchanges will not be taken away by on-chain transactions. Factors such as the smoothness of CEX transactions, centralized responsible asset custody, the establishment of user habits and mindsets, liquidity barriers, and the global regulatory compliance trend, ensure that the transaction share within CEX will long and continuously exceed that of on-chain transactions.

So, the following question is, how do centralized exchanges filter and decide which projects to list among many? How has the overall performance of the coins that have been listed in the past year been? Is there a correlation between the performance of these listed tokens and the exchanges chosen?

In order to address these questions of concern to the market, this study aims to explore the listing situation of major exchanges and analyze its actual impact on the token market performance, focusing on the changes in trading volume and price fluctuation characteristics after listing, in order to identify the impact of different exchanges on the market performance of coins after their launch.

1.2 Research Methodology

1.2.1 Research Object

We combine the exchange with regions and market orientation, mainly divided into these three categories:

Created by Chinese, aimed at the global market: a certain exchange, a certain exchange, a certain exchange, a certain exchange, a certain exchange, a certain exchange, etc. Mainly well-known exchanges founded and invested by Chinese, targeting the global market. There are many Chinese exchanges, and for the sake of research, the selected exchanges have different development characteristics; the exchanges that were not selected also have their own advantages.

Korea creation, targeting local: certain exchanges, certain exchanges, etc. Mainly aimed at the South Korean local market.

Created in the United States, targeting Europe and America: certain exchanges, certain exchanges, etc. American exchanges mainly target the Europe and America markets and are usually subject to strict regulation by the SEC, CFTC, and others.

Exchanges in regions such as Latin America, India, and Africa, due to an overall trading volume and Liquidity of less than 5%, will not be analyzed in depth in this report.

We selected a total of 10 representative exchanges from the above, analyzing their coin listing performance, including the number of listing events and their subsequent market impact.

1.2.2 Time Range

Focus mainly on the price changes of the token on the first day after the TGE, the previous 7 days, and the previous 30 days, analyzing its trends, volatility patterns, and market reactions for the following reasons:

• On the first day of the TGE, new assets are issued, and trading volume is highly active, reflecting the market's immediate acceptance. Influenced significantly by speculation and FOMO sentiment, it is a critical stage for the market's initial pricing.
• The price changes in the first 7 days after the TGE can capture the market's short-term sentiment towards the new coin, as well as the initial recognition of the project's fundamentals, measuring the sustainability of market enthusiasm and returning to the project's reasonable initial pricing.
• The first 30 days after the TGE observe the long-term support of the token, as short-term speculation cools down, and speculators gradually exit. Whether the token price and trading volume are maintained becomes an important reference for market recognition.

1.2.3 Data Processing

This study adopts a systematic data processing method to ensure the scientific nature of the analysis. Compared to common research methods available on the market, this study is more intuitive, concise, and efficient.

This research report primarily uses data from TradingView, covering the price data of newly listed tokens on major exchanges in 2024, including initial listing prices, market prices at different time points, and trading volumes. Due to the large number of sample points, this large-scale data analysis helps to reduce the impact of single abnormal data on the overall trend, thereby improving the reliability of the statistical results.

(I)Overview of Multi-Variable Listing Activities

This study adopts a multivariate analysis method, comprehensively considering factors such as market conditions, trading depth, and Liquidity to ensure the comprehensiveness and scientific nature of the results. We compared the average price fluctuations of new coins from different exchanges and conducted an in-depth analysis in conjunction with the market positioning of the exchanges, such as user base, Liquidity, and coin listing strategies.

(II)Average value judgment of overall performance

To measure the market performance of the token, we calculated its percentage change relative to the initial price of the coin (Percentage Change ), with the formula as follows:

Percentage Change = ( current price - initial price ) / initial price * 100%

Considering that extreme situations in the market may affect the overall data trend, we excluded the top 10% and bottom 10% of extreme outliers to reduce the interference of sporadic market events ( such as sudden good news, market manipulation, and liquidity anomalies ) on the statistical results. This approach makes the calculation results more representative and can more accurately reflect the real market performance of new coins on different exchanges. Subsequently, we calculated the average price change of new coins on each exchange to measure the overall performance of new coin markets on different platforms.

(III)Coefficient of variation for stability assessment

Coefficient of Variation, CV( is an indicator that measures the relative volatility of data, and its calculation formula is:

CV = σ / μ

Among them, σ is the standard deviation and μ is the mean. The coefficient of variation is a dimensionless indicator, unaffected by the units of the data, suitable for comparing the volatility of different datasets. In market analysis, CV is mainly used to measure the relative volatility of prices or returns. In exchange or token price analysis, CV can reflect the relative stability of different markets, providing investors with a basis for risk assessment. Here, the coefficient of variation is used instead of the standard deviation, because the coefficient of variation has higher applicability compared to the standard deviation.

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2. Overview of Token Listing Activities

) 2.1 Comparison Between Exchanges

(# 2.1.1 Number of coins listed and FDV preference

We found that, from the overall data perspective, top exchanges ) such as a certain exchange, a certain exchange, and a certain exchange ### have generally fewer coins listed than other exchanges. This reflects the different positions of the exchanges affecting the coin listing style.

From the perspective of the number of listed coins, certain exchanges have stricter listing rules with fewer coins listed but larger scales; whereas other exchanges like certain platforms list new assets more frequently, providing more trading opportunities. Data shows that the number of listed coins is roughly negatively correlated with FDV, meaning that exchanges that list more high FDV projects typically have fewer listed coins.

CEX adopts different strategies to determine the priority of listing coins, focusing on different fully diluted valuations ### FDV ( levels. Here we categorize based on the project's FDV to better understand the exchange's standards for listing coins. When valuing tokens, we often consider MC and FDV, which together reflect the token's valuation, market size, and Liquidity.

• MC only calculates the total value of currently circulating tokens, without considering the value of tokens that will be unlocked in the future. Therefore, it may underestimate the true valuation of the project, especially when most tokens have not yet been unlocked, which can easily lead to misunderstandings.
• FDV is calculated based on the total supply of all tokens, which can more comprehensively reflect the potential valuation of a project and help investors assess future selling pressure risks and long-term value. For projects with low MC/FDV, the short-term reference significance of FDV is limited, and it is more of a long-term reference.

Therefore, when analyzing newly launched tokens, FDV is more relevant than Market Cap. Here we choose FDV as the standard.

In addition, from the perspective of attitudes towards initial offering projects, most exchanges generally adopt a balanced strategy, that is, taking into account both initial and non-initial projects, but usually have higher requirements for non-initial projects because initial projects tend to attract more new users. Furthermore, two Korean exchanges focus primarily on non-initial coin offerings on certain trading platforms. This is because, compared to initial offerings, non-initial coin offerings can reduce selection risks and avoid the market volatility and initial liquidity issues associated with the initial offering stage. At the same time, for project parties, compared to initial offerings, they do not need to bear excessive marketing and liquidity management pressure, and non-initial coin offerings can leverage existing market recognition to drive growth.

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) 2.1.2 track preference

(# A certain exchange

In 2024, the number of Meme coins will still account for the largest proportion. Infra and DeFi projects also have a significant share. The number of coins in the RWA and DePIN sectors is relatively small on a certain exchange, but their overall performance is good. Among them, the highest increase for USUAL spot reached 7081%. Although a certain exchange is relatively cautious in its coin selection in these areas, once listed, the market response is usually quite positive. In the second half of the year, the coin preferences of a certain exchange in the AI sector are clearly tilted towards AI Agent tokens, which have the highest proportion among AI projects.

In 2024, a certain exchange shows a preference for a specific blockchain ecosystem. For example, the launch of projects like BANANA and CGPT indicates that the exchange is strengthening its support for its own on-chain ecosystem.

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a certain exchange

On a certain exchange, the number of listed Meme coins is the highest, accounting for about 25%. In comparison to other exchanges, there are more coins listed in the public chain and infrastructure track, with a total share reaching as high as 34%. This indicates that, in contrast, the certain exchange is more focused on underlying technology innovation, scalability optimization, and the sustainable development of the blockchain ecosystem in 2024.

In emerging sectors, a certain exchange has only launched 4 types of AI coins, including DMAIL and GPT, has introduced 3 new coins in the RWA sector, and only 3 in the DePIN sector. This reflects the cautious positioning of the certain exchange in relatively emerging sectors.

a trading platform

The biggest feature of a certain exchange's token listing in 2024 is its wide coverage of tracks, with generally good performance of the tokens. In 2024, UNI and BNT were launched on the DEX track. This indicates that the certain exchange still has significant potential and development space for listing popular assets, as many mainstream or high-market-cap coins have yet to be listed, and it may further expand support in the future. At the same time, this also reflects that the certain exchange has strict review processes for token listings, showing a tendency to carefully select assets with long-term potential.

On a certain exchange, the price increases of tokens in various sectors are quite prominent. Tokens in the PEPE( Meme), AGLD### Game(, DRIFT) DeFi(, SAFE) Infra( sectors have seen significant short-term gains, reaching as high as 100% or even exceeding 150%. UNI's performance on the 30th day after its launch compared to the 1st day is...