2024 Crypto Market Review and 2025 Outlook

2024 is an important year in the history of cryptocurrency. Significant progress has been made in the crypto industry around two core topics: ETFs and the U.S. elections. Mainstream institutions are rushing in, the industry's recognition has significantly increased, and the regulatory environment is becoming clearer and more relaxed. Mainstreaming, path differentiation, and regulatory evolution have become the main characteristics of this year.

2024 Review

Bitcoin is undoubtedly the core of this year. ETFs and national reserves have pushed it to a high of $100,000, marking Bitcoin's formal transcendence beyond the crypto market category, becoming a globally recognized hedge against inflation. The Bitcoin ecosystem has also expanded, with DeFi TVL growing more than 20 times year-round to $6.755 billion.

In contrast, Ethereum has underperformed, with a decline in value capture and user activity. The Layer 2 competition is accelerating, continuously eroding the mainnet's share. Solana has emerged strongly, with its TVL market share rising from nearly zero at the beginning of the year to 6.9%, becoming the second-largest public chain after Ethereum. The price of SOL has surged from 6 dollars two years ago to 200 dollars.

MEME has become a major driving force in the market this year. Although its market capitalization is not high, its trading volume has consistently accounted for around 6-7%. The connotation of MEME is also continuously expanding, evolving from a purely speculative target to a representative of cultural finance.

AI has once again become a dark horse at the end of the year. Projects like Truth Terminal have rapidly risen, sparking a boom in AI Agent applications. Currently, the infrastructure in this field is not yet完善, and applications are mostly concentrated on the surface, but the opportunities are enormous.

PayFi has become an important bridge connecting traditional finance and Web3. Stablecoins occupy a significant position in the global payments and remittances market, with a circulation scale exceeding $210 billion. The market size for RWA has also expanded to $14 billion.

2025 Outlook

Looking ahead to 2025, most institutions hold an optimistic attitude towards the market:

• The price of Bitcoin is expected to reach $150,000 to $200,000, with some institutions even predicting $500,000.
• ETH is expected to reach $6000-7000, Solana is expected to reach $500-750
• The total market capitalization of encryption is expected to reach 7.5-8 trillion USD.

Stablecoins, tokenized assets, and AI are the areas of greatest interest to institutions:

• The settlement volume of stablecoins is expected to reach 300-450 billion USD.
• The value of tokenized securities is expected to exceed $50 billion.
• The combination of AI and encryption will play an important role in areas such as DeFi and MEME.

Other directions worth paying attention to include:

• DeFi Renaissance
• Application chain and L2 integration
• ZK technology is widely used
• NFT market is warming up

Investment Advice

1. The price of mainstream coins is on the rise, especially with a series of favorable policies expected in Q1 2025.

2. The crypto market continues to differentiate, with compliant projects more easily attracting funding.

3. Ethereum faces challenges, but external capital inflow may alleviate some of them. Solana's growth momentum remains, but excessive reliance on MEME poses risks.

4. Consumer-grade applications are a key focus for the future, and application chains and chain abstraction may become the mainstream development methods.

5. The consensus on the revival of DeFi has been established, AAVE is worth paying attention to. The centralized sector focuses on payments.

6. The MEME speculation craze will continue in the short term, but the pace will slow down. The infrastructure surrounding MEME is expected to improve.

7. Stablecoins, AI, RWA, DePin and other sectors favored by institutions will accelerate development.

8. On-chain liquidity tools and protocols are favored in the context of liquidity tightening.

A new cycle is about to arrive, and investors should seize the opportunity to conduct in-depth research and participate in emerging tracks.