HashKey Trading Moment: Bitcoin attacks 110,000, Ethereum aims for key resistance, how to layout under the shadow of tariffs?

1. Market Observation

Although the U.S. has extended the tariff suspension period to August 1st, this week it has threatened to increase taxes on imported goods from major trading partners again, leading to ongoing uncertainty regarding the final tariff levels. A UBS report shows that the current tariffs are equivalent to a tax of 1.5% of GDP on U.S. importers, with annual tariff revenue exceeding $300 billion. The lagging effect of these tariffs on inflation is expected to be reflected in the July CPI data to be released in August. This delay is due to corporate inventory buffers, slow transmission of intermediate goods prices, and the bi-monthly sampling mechanism of the CPI. Historical experience indicates that a 10% general tariff takes 2-3 months to fully reflect in the price index. In terms of interest rate policy, the Federal Reserve is facing a dilemma: a survey by the New York Fed shows that one-year inflation expectations have fallen to 3%, but there are significant pressures in specific areas such as medical costs (9.3%) and university tuition (9.1%). Meanwhile, the labor market presents conflicting signals - concerns about unemployment have eased but reemployment difficulties have increased.

With the Hong Kong "Stablecoin Regulation" set to take effect in August, the market is full of expectations for the compliance dividends that the clear regulatory framework will bring. HashKey's chief analyst Jeffrey Ding pointed out that Hong Kong stock stablecoin concept stocks, such as Jin Yong Investment, have recently doubled, reflecting the market's strong expectations for compliance dividends after the regulation takes effect in August. The regulatory framework revealed by Deputy Financial Secretary Xu Zhengyu will cover core requirements such as anti-money laundering and reserve auditing, and the first batch of licenses planned to be issued within the year may reshape the competitive landscape of the industry. However, Jeffrey Ding also warned that stablecoins need to overcome three major obstacles to disrupt the traditional payment system: the profit distribution mechanism between financial institutions and tech companies, the difficulty of cross-border regulatory coordination, and the stress testing of systemic risks under extreme market conditions.

The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a critical technical breakthrough and cycle verification phase, with intense battles between bulls and bears around the $110,000 mark. Analyst 0xENAS pointed out that if the price cannot break through this resistance level, it may quickly fall back to $100,000; conversely, it could aim for $120,000. A more optimistic prediction comes from analyst TedPillows, who believes that Bitcoin's next phase could rise to the range of $120,000 to $125,000, based on the trend of M2 money supply. From a longer time frame, analyst Rekt Capital estimates that the peak of this bull market could occur between mid-September and mid-October 2025, which aligns with analyst Jelle's trading plan, as the latter has begun to gradually reduce his positions and plans to completely exit the market before October 2025. Ali noted that Bitcoin has solid support around $106,360.

Regarding Ethereum, analyst Open4profit stated that ETH is approaching the triangular resistance level of 2630 USD after standing above 2600 USD, and Open4profit suggests paying attention to changes in trading volume to confirm the trend. Meanwhile, the market's optimism towards Ethereum has also transmitted to stocks holding related tokens, with GameSquare's stock price soaring 58.76% in a single day, and associated listed companies like Sharplink (+28.57%) and Bit Digital (+7.47%) also showing strength.

In the altcoin market, Vertex announced the migration of its DEX on Arbitrum to the Ink network, gradually phasing out the native token VRTX, leading to a 60% drop in VRTX over 24 hours. The MEME token battle between Solana ecosystem's Letsbonk and Pump.fun remains heated, but the related token LetsBONK has experienced a decline of over 30%, with the market temporarily lacking a sustainable new narrative. Notably, the $Lore token has surpassed a market cap of $2 million under retweets and comments on the X platform.

2. Key Data (as of July 9, 12:00 HKT)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)

• Bitcoin: $108,513 (Year-to-date +15.99%), Daily spot trading volume $21.324 billion
• Ethereum: $2,600.10 (Year-to-Date -22.06%), Daily Spot Trading Volume is $15.521 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 67 (Greed)
• Average GAS: BTC: 0.52 sat/vB, ETH: 0.3 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 64.2%, ETH 9.3%
• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, Ether, Bitcoin, CRO, BONK
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 0.9728
• Sector Changes: DeFi sector increased by 2.89%; L2 sector increased by 2.78%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 59,563 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 121 million USD, including BTC liquidations of 22.3 million USD, ETH liquidations of 34.98 million USD, and MAGIC liquidations of 5.35 million USD.
• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (108964.14 USD), lower channel line (106806.44 USD)
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper line of the channel (2545.01 USD), lower line (2494.61 USD)

*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower bounds, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF inflow (as of July 8)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$80.08 million, continuous net inflow for 4 days
• Ethereum ETF: +$46.6308 million, continuous net inflow for 3 days

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance Alpha will launch the RCADE project on July 9.
• Binance Alpha and Binance Futures will launch Tanssi Network(TANSSI)
• The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. (July 10, 02:00)
• In 2025, FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy. (July 10, 21:00)
• The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending July 5 is ( million ): Previous value 23.3, Forecast value 23.5 (July 10, 20:30)

Top 500 Market Cap Gains Today: Treasure (MAGIC) up 46.05%, Banana For Scale (BANANAS31) up 31.92%, Zebec Network (ZBCN) up 16.77%, Cronos (CRO) up 16.70%, VVS Finance (VVS) up 15.75%.

5. Hot News

• a16z Crypto has liquidated its COMP holdings and today transferred another 400,000 COMP to Coinbase Prime.
• Tether holds $8 billion worth of gold in a secret vault in Switzerland.
• Vertex will close the original DEX and migrate to the Kraken-supported Layer 2 network Ink.
• World Gold Council: Global gold ETFs increased by $38 billion in the first half of the year, with daily trading volume setting a half-year record.
• SharpLink purchased 7,689 ETH last week, bringing total holdings to over 200,000 coins and earned 322 Ethereum staking rewards.
• Hong Kong listed company Jin Yong Investment rose by over 600%, having announced a stablecoin collaboration with AnchorX.
• "Yiwu merchants begin to accept stablecoins" has ranked 4th on Baidu's trending search list.
• The number of BONK holding addresses is about to exceed 1 million, at which point 1 trillion tokens will be burned.
• The publicly listed real estate company Murano plans to establish a Bitcoin reserve through a $500 million equity transaction.
• Bit Digital sold 280 Bitcoins and used the proceeds to purchase Ether.
• Publicly traded company GameSquare raised $8 million to initiate an Ether fund management strategy.

This article is supported by HashKey. HashKey Exchange is the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and is also Asia's most trusted fiat gateway for cryptocurrency assets. It is committed to setting a new benchmark for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform protection.