Solana (SOL) price prediction: daily chart golden cross reappears, bullish target at 294 USD

Solana (SOL) price broke through strongly on July 22, reaching $204, hitting a new high since February this year, with a cumulative increase of 112% from the year's low. The technical aspect formed a key daily chart golden cross (50-day/200-day moving average cross), while also breaking the potential double top bearish pattern. Favorable information in the ecosystem is stacking up: the Rex Staked SOL ETF Assets Under Management (AUM) broke the historical peak of $107 million, and Polymarket shows the probability of SEC approving the Spot SOL ETF soaring to nearly 100%. On-chain data is synchronously exploding: stablecoin supply increased by 6.3% month-on-month to over $11 billion, and active Addresses surged by 85% to reach 3.7 million. Analysts have a bullish target of $294 (potential increase of 43%).

Technical Breakthrough: Golden Cross + Double Top Pattern Invalidated The SOL daily chart releases a strong bullish signal:

• Golden Cross（黄金交叉）formation: The 50-day moving average has crossed above the 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023. A historically similar pattern (when SOL was $25) triggered a subsequent 1200% surge to a historical high of $300.

• Key Resistance Turned Support: Successfully breaking through and stabilizing above 186.9 USD key resistance level, turning it into support, disrupting the potential double top pattern (neckline at 125.9 USD).

• Indicator Strong Momentum: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) rises to 82, indicating strong buying pressure, and the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) crosses above the zero line to confirm the upward trend.

• Target Price: The short-term target looks at the January high of $294 (an upside potential of 43% from the current price), with a stop-loss reference set at the golden cross formation point of $160.

  

Core Catalyst: Staking ETF Breaks 100 Million and Spot ETF Approval Expectations Institutional funds entering the market have become the core driving force behind the surge of SOL:

• Staked SOL ETF Milestone: Rex Staked Solana ETF Assets Under Management (AUM) surpassed $107 million, reaching a historical peak in three months since its launch, demonstrating Wall Street's strong demand for SOL yield-bearing assets.
• Spot ETF Approval Probability Soars: According to prediction market Polymarket, the implied probability of the SEC approving the spot SOL ETF has surged to nearly 100%, far exceeding that of other altcoins, as the market bets on an imminent regulatory breakthrough.
• Altcoin Season Expectation: During Bitcoin's sideways movement, funds are rapidly rotating into altcoins, with SOL benefiting significantly as a leading public chain and core platform in the Meme coin ecosystem.

Ecosystem Explosion: On-chain Data All-Dimensional Growth The underlying ecosystem of Solana is showing a healthy expansion trend:

• Stablecoin Supply Expansion: The total supply of on-chain stablecoins increased by 6.3% over 30 days, surpassing $11 billion, reflecting the activity level of actual financial activities.
• User base surges: The number of active addresses has increased by over 85% month-on-month, with a total exceeding 3.7 million, indicating an accelerated improvement in network adoption.
• Trading Volume Soars: After adjustment, the on-chain transaction volume increased by 60% month-on-month, reaching 132 billion USD, validating the network's high performance capacity.
• Meme Coin Ecosystem Prosperity: The total market value of Meme coins on the Solana blockchain has surpassed 15 billion USD, becoming the core engine that attracts retail traffic and creates wealth effects.

Risk Warning: Beware of Technical Overbought and Macro Volatility Despite the strong trend, investors need to pay attention to:

• RSI has reached the 82 overbought zone, indicating a potential technical pullback in the short term.
• Must maintain the 160 USD golden cross support level, if it falls below, it will damage the bullish structure.
• Bitcoin trends and macro market sentiment remain potential disturbance factors.

Conclusion: Solana, with the technical momentum of the golden cross, institutional endorsement from the staking ETF surpassing 100 million, and the comprehensive prosperity of on-chain data, is becoming the leading gainer in this round of altcoin season. The near-certain approval expectation of the Spot ETF provides a strong catalyst for SOL to challenge 294 dollars and even reach a historical high of 300 dollars. The meme coin frenzy with a market cap of 15 billion within the ecosystem and the application of stablecoins in the tens of billions together construct a fundamental value support. If the SEC timely approves the Spot ETF, Solana will replicate the institutional capital siphoning effect of the Bitcoin ETF, initiating a new round of valuation reconstruction. Investors can currently position themselves with the key support of 160 dollars, closely monitoring the continuity of the golden cross pattern and the progress of the ETF approval. The "institutional + ecological" dual-driven market for SOL may have just begun.