Cardano (ADA) Price Prediction: Early signs of profit-taking emerge, volume divergence lacks bullish momentum?

Cardano (ADA) price has achieved a strong Rebound, breaking through the key resistance level of 0.8838 USD for the first time in months. The price has risen 17% in just one week, indicating strong buying pressure. However, on-chain indicators show that market sentiment is becoming cautious, raising concerns about whether this pump can be sustained and reach the target of 1.43 USD.

Cash flow reversal, early signs of profit taking?

The early warning signal comes from the net inflow of the exchange. After several weeks of outflow of ADA (which is usually a positive sign for long-term investors holding their positions), about 3.35 million USD of ADA flowed back to the exchange on July 21.

Although the numbers are not large, the return of funds to exchanges after a rebound usually indicates that selling pressure may be on the horizon.

(Source: Coinglass)

Derivatives Market Heats Up - Is There a Risk of Pullback?

At the same time, the derivatives market is showing signs of overheating. The financing rate (the cost that perpetual contract traders pay on their positions) soared to 0.024% on July 21, the second highest level since April.

This reflects extreme bullish sentiment, with most investors betting on a pump while also using high leverage—this situation often leads to short-term corrections.

(Source: Coinglass)

OBV Divergence - Lack of Bullish Momentum?

The OBV (On-Balance Volume) indicator, which tracks buying and selling pressure through trading volume, has also issued concerning signals.

Despite the fact that the ADA price broke through the previous high of $0.8641 and reached $0.88 on July 21, the current OBV is far below the levels seen in May. This divergence between price and volume suggests that bullish momentum may be waning.

(Source: Trading View)

ADA target price 1.43 USD, requires more push from the overall market

From a technical perspective, breaking through $0.8838 will open the door for ADA, allowing it to advance towards key psychological levels such as $1.00 and $1.0828, and then aiming for a target of $1.43 based on the Fibonacci extension level (2.618). However, to achieve a 61% pump, ADA needs support from a positive trend in the entire cryptocurrency market.

One factor is that Clarity's rating system classifies Cardano as "mature," placing ADA on the same level as Bitcoin and Ethereum—this is a significant advantage in the context of growing expectations for ETFs.

Analyst Dan Gambardello even proposed a hypothetical scenario on social media: if the price of Bitcoin reaches $250,000, and ADA occupies 4.5% of the market share, then the price of ADA could reach $12.86.

(Source: Trading View)