The Crypto Market Falls Again, When Will The Turning Point Come?
[TL；DR]:
The crypto market fell sharply at the end of March, and the market greed index once again entered the fear zone, and market sentiment was depressed.
The tariff policy that Trump plans to announce on April 2 has sparked market concerns that it could push up inflation and economic stagnation, and the uncertainty in US economic data has exacerbated the market sell-off.
If we simply look at the global liquidity M2 and Bitcoin price charts, the crypto market seems to be in the bottom range.
Introduction
When the video of Vitalik Buterin learning to meow like a cat to a robot went viral on social media last weekend, the price of Ethereum suddenly spiked to $1,767. This seems to have become a habit, that is, under the pessimistic expectation of weak macro liquidity, the fragile market sentiment will always pour out its grievances on events that easily arouse people’s sensitive minds. This article will provide an in-depth interpretation of the recent sharp drop in the crypto market under the threat of Trump’s equal tariff stick, and look forward to the future market trend for readers.
The Sharp Drop in US Stocks Brought Down the Crypto Market, and Trading Sentiment Was Low
Last Friday, the S&P 500 index plunged 1.97% in a single day, and the market value of the seven major technology giants evaporated by $505 billion. This “Black Friday” quickly affected the crypto market. Bitcoin fell from $87,000 to $84,000 on the same day, falling below the 200-day bull-bear moving average again. Ethereum, the former “blockchain operating ”, fell for six consecutive days to around $1,800 and struggled. For the first time, Bitcoin continued to be weaker than Bitcoin within a year of halving. Solana (SOL) also plummeted to a low of $122.
Source: Gate.io
As pessimism continued from the weekend, the crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to the “panic” zone of 26. As Bitcoin becomes more deeply integrated into the traditional financial world, its strong correlation with technology stocks is exposed.
Source: alternative.me
Judging from the on-chain data, the inflow of new demand for BTC continues to weaken, most short-term investors are now in a loss, and the supply of long-term holders has begun to grow again, which is basically consistent with the signal that whales are withdrawing BTC from exchanges and dormant in cold wallets.
However, this long-term bullish sign does not help save the market from short-term weakness, and retail panic selling has become the main position. Specifically, short-term holders currently hold 40% of wealth, reaching a peak of 50% in early 2025. This peak is still significantly lower than in previous cycles, when the wealth held by new investors peaked at 70-90% at the peak of the cycle, which may be related to this round of large institutional investors investing in ETFs.
Source: glassnode
However, it is worth noting that the issuance of stablecoin USDT has exceeded the historical peak of $144 billion, starkly contrasting the continued correction of the crypto market. This phenomenon can be compared to the liquidity trap in the real world, just like the preview of the liquidity crisis in March 2020 - the market is not short of money, but lacks confidence.
Trump Raises Tariff Stick, Results May Come Out on April 2
Much of the current market uncertainty stems from the “reciprocal tariffs” that President Trump plans to announce on April 2. The Trump team is discussing the implementation of broader and higher tariffs before the deadline, including the possibility of a comprehensive tariff of up to 20% on all trading partners. These tariffs could push up production costs and inflation and cause economic stagnation, which the market is highly sensitive to.
According to the latest news I have seen, President Trump said in an interview on Air Force One that tariffs will be imposed on “all countries” this week and then “see what happens.” This harsh statement continues Trump’s consistent economic policy style.
Source: Bloomberg
According to various reports, if value-added tax (VAT) and industry tariffs are added, global stock markets may face a 5% - 10% correction, the US economy will almost immediately fall into recession and will last for more than a year, the unemployment rate will exceed 7%, and the crypto market as a risky asset will bear the brunt, and the selling pressure will be greater than any macro suppression this year.
Source: MacroMicro
In addition, weak U.S. economic data also added to market concerns. Poor inflation and consumer confidence data, the March non-farm payrolls report (12.8-13.5 million new jobs are expected), and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on April 4 are seen as key events. As usual, weak data may increase recession fears; strong data may delay expected interest rate cuts, both of which seem unfavorable for crypto assets.
In my opinion, after the AI Agent was shut down, there was no new hype narrative within the crypto market to drive positive sentiment, while the interference of external macro factors re-emerged, dominating market fluctuations. In particular, Trump’s tariff policy not only affected the traditional economy, but also affected the crypto market through the contagion effect of market sentiment.
The Embarrassing Situation of This Round of Bull Market and Future Changes
When the author mentioned the interim low point of Bitcoin at that time in “The Market is Once Again in ‘Extreme Panic’, Analyze the Turning Point of the Market“, he did not expect that the price of the currency would fall again to the previous low support level after a brief repair of more than ten days, and many Altcoins have hit new lows due to excessive blood loss. This large-scale decline actually reflects the embarrassing situation of this round of bull market: external policy dividends (such as ETFs) only flowed to BTC, and internal pseudo-innovation produced PvP, which made the bull market unsustainable.
New coins are worthless: 90% of new coins have become harvesting tools of “peak as soon as they are listed on an exchange”, and only a small part of the DeFi locked-in amount has real usage scenarios.
Capital Idleness: In Q4 2024, the financing amount of on-chain projects plummeted by 64% month-on-month, and VC funds shifted from early-stage investment to secondary market arbitrage.
Narrative Exhaustion: Hot topics from DePIN, Meme to RWA and AI have failed to form sustained momentum. Excessive PvP has shortened the price discovery time and amplitude of new narratives. However, the transaction volume of Meme coins with huge bubbles and overly fast metabolism has climbed to a new high.
If we compare the past ups and downs of the crypto market, we can see that pessimism breeds growth, and the market’s long and short sentiments are often two-sided. The author mentioned in “The US Economic Recession Is Imminent, What Impact Will It Have On The Crypto Market?“ that April and October are traditionally strong months in history, and are expected to rebound after all the negative news is exhausted.
Source: Timothy Peterson/X
In addition, Paoul, founder of Real Vision, Quinten, founder of weRate, and others recently forwarded the chart of global liquidity M2 and Bitcoin price trend. From the chart, the crypto market seems to be at the bottom range. Of course, whether this correlation is effective remains to be observed.
Source: LSEG Datastream
Looking back at the beginning of Q2 2025, the crypto market is experiencing the most bizarre bull market - it is both held high by the sword of Trump’s tariffs and pulled by the potential QE of the Federal Reserve in the future. It is both trapped by the stagnation of internal innovation and benefits from the continued penetration of the real world. In this sense, the crypto market is undoubtedly full of challenges in the short term. Still, the long-term fundamentals remain strong: the increasing adoption of blockchain technology, the increasing acceptance of digital assets by institutions, and the limited supply of Bitcoin all point to a bright future. Although the current bull market is in an awkward situation, it is not the end, but a breather in the adjustment.
